The 3-Hour-Interval Prediction of Ground-Level Temperature in South Korea Using Dynamic Li
The 3-Hour-Interval Prediction of Ground-Level Temperature in South Korea Using Dynamic Linear
Models
Keon-Tae SOHN; Deuk-Kyun RHA; Young-Kyung SEO
【期刊名称】《《大气科学进展（英文版）》》 【年(卷),期】2003(020)004
【摘要】The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematicerror of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values ofthe DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecastswith RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction. 【总页数】8页(575-582)
【关键词】temperature forecasting; systematic error; dynamic linear model
【作者】Keon-Tae SOHN; Deuk-Kyun RHA; Young-Kyung SEO
【作者单位】Dept. of Statistics Pusan National University 30 Jangjeon-dong Geumjung-gu Pusan 609-735 Korea; Korea Meteorological Administration 460-18 Shindaebang-dong Tongjak-gu Seoul 156-720 Korea
The 3-Hour-Interval Prediction of Ground-Level Temperature in South Korea Using Dynamic Li
