United States - The Downgrade Scenario
David Semmens;David Mann;Ned Rumpeltin;Jennifer Kusuma;Callum Henderson
【期刊名称】《中国对外贸易（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2011(000)015
【摘要】@@ SummaryrnThe US debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington are showing little progress as the 2 August deadline approaches.Based on the latest proposals under discussion, the chances of a debt-ceiling hike which also incorporates USD 4trn worth of deficit cuts over the next decade are slim.This is important, as it means that S&P is likely to downgrade the US sovereign rating from AAA to AA, even if the debt ceiling is raised.Note that in an interview with Dow Jones, one of S&P's credit analysts said that to avoid a downgrade, the US needs to agree to reduce the fiscal deficit by over USD 4tm over the next ten years.This is what S&P sees as the required amount to prevent the total government debt-to-GDP ratio from rising.Therefore, a debt-ceiling deal with deficit cuts falling short of this could mean a downgrade by at least one of the three key rating agencies. 【总页数】5页(20-24) 【关键词】
【作者】David Semmens;David Mann;Ned Rumpeltin;Jennifer Kusuma;Callum Henderson
【作者单位】Analysts,Standard Char-tered;Analysts,Standard Char-
United States - The Downgrade Scenario
