PXGM(1,1)模型在参考作物腾发量预测中的应用
迟道才;王海南;陈涛涛;王琦;沈亚西
【期刊名称】《沈阳农业大学学报》 【年(卷),期】2011(042)006
【摘要】为了提高参考作物腾发量预测模型的预测精度,将灰色新陈代谢预测模型与粒子群优化算法(PSO)相结合,提出PXGM(1,1)模型,并用该模型来预测阜新市参考作物腾发量.结果表明:优化后的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型(简称PXGM(1,1)模型)的预测精度较原有的灰色新陈代谢预测模型的预测精度有了很大的提高.该模型建模过程简单、适用性强,为参考作物腾发量的预测提供了新的方法.%The grey metabolism CM (1, 1) model (called XGM (1, 1) for short) will add new information and abandon the old constantly during the prediction process, with fully considering the new disturbance factors to the system. The XGM (1, 1) model was applied to reference crop evapotranspiration prediction, the prediction would be accuracier than the traditional grey GM (1,1) model but the range was not desriable. The method was combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, by taking parameters a and b of the optimization model. The results showed that the precision of prediction improved very much after optimization (called PXGM (1, 1) model for short). The model had simple modeling process and wide applicability, provided a new method for reference crop evapotranspiration prediction. 【总页数】4页(714-717)
PXGM(1,1)模型在参考作物腾发量预测中的应用
