２０１１／２０１２季度中国玉米市场分析2011/2012 China Corn Market冯吉龙总经理吉林双胞胎粮食贸易有限公司Mr. FengJilong, General Manager,Dalian BeifangInternational Grain Logistics Co., Ltd.一、中国玉米市场的供需格局发生本质变化Essential Changes in Supply and Demand二、中国玉米市场的短期行情分析Short-Term Analysis三、中国玉米市场的中期行情分析Mid-Term Analysis1（一）中国玉米供需格局的演变
Essential Changes in Supply and Demand
From oversupply to tight balance of S/D to supply shortage
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（二）中国玉米供应分析
China Corn Supply Analysis
n１０年间中国玉米产量总体呈现增长趋势。
n１０年间中国玉米产量增量约为４７％。
n产量增长主要来源于播种面积的增加。Corn output
increased by 47% over the past ten years, mainly because of the increased acreage.
n伴随１０年间中国玉米产量总体的增加，中国玉米价格总体也在呈逐年上涨的趋势。Price
also increased.
数据来源：ＵＳＤＡ 北方物流研发部注：２０１１／２０１２年产量暂为ＵＳＤＡ预估
单位：亿吨，％
Ｓｏｕｒｃｅ：ＵＳＤＡ Ｎｏｒｔｈｅｒｎ Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃｓ Ｕｎｉｔ： １００ ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎ，％Ｎｏｔｅ：２０１１／２０１２Ｏｕｔｐｕｔ ｉｓ ｔｈｅ ｅｓｔｉｍａｔｅ ｂｙ ＵＳＤＡ
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（三）中国玉米需求分析
China Corn Demand Analysis
数据来源：ＵＳＤＡ 北方物流研发部注：２０１１／２０１２年产量暂为ＵＳＤＡ预估
单位：亿吨，％
n１０年间中国玉米消费量总体呈现为刚性增长。n１０年间中国玉米消费增量约为４５％。
n１０年间中国玉米消费量年均增长率约为４．５％。n１０年间中国玉米消费量增长主要源于饲料消费与工业消费的增长。n随着我国经济发展，居民收入不断增加，对于肉蛋奶的摄取量也将不断增加，刚性增长仍将延续。
nRigid corn demand hikes over past 10 years
nConsumption goes up by 45% over 10 years with annual growth rateat 4.5%, mainly because of more feed and industrial demand
nRigid corn demand will surge further with the increasing demand of dairy and poultry products and meat.
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（四）国内库存分析Domestic Stocks Analysis东北临储拍卖数据跨省移库拍卖数据Temporary Reserves Auction in NETransferred Reserves Auctionn从２００８年开始至今，共计拍卖临储约为５５００万吨A total of 55 million MT of corn traded through temporary reserves auction since 2008.5（五）未来增加供应的可行性
Potential of Supply Growth
n增加播种面积。Increase planting acreage.
n提高单产，可通过转基因品种的使用，科学的规模化种植，以及对中低产田地的改造等方法。我国玉米单产还有较大提升空间。Increase unit yield through adoption of GM, scale effect
and upgrading low-production field.
n通过玉米的进口加大国内供应。More imports.
n小麦替代，在保证小麦库存安全的前提下，通过国际国内小麦对玉米进行替代。Wheat in place of corn.
n开展海外农业投资。Carry out agricultural investment overseas.
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（六）未来需求的变化趋势
Demand Outlook
n预计未来我国玉米的饲料需求将以平均每年５％－６％的速度增长，年需求增量为５００－６００万吨。
Feed corn demand is expected to increase by 5-6% or 5-6 million MT annually.
n预计未来我国玉米的工业需求将以平均每年３％－５％的速度增长，年需求增量为２００－３００万吨。由于玉米深加工正处于盈利周期，产品生产效益良好，企业的生产积极性较高，因此仍有较强增长动力及上涨空间。但考虑到深加工行业受经济、政策影响较大，这种需求增量变化较大。
Feed corn demand is expected to increase by 3-5% or 2-3 million MT annually. Such Demand may increase further due to current high profit margin. However, the increase may be volatile given the impact from economy and government policy.
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（七）未来增加库存的方式
Possible Ways to Increase Stocks in Future
n对于我国玉米库存储备的增加，应该在我国玉米大丰收时加大储备，且在价格合理时适当地进口玉米，这样才能建立具有相应调控能力的或能够稳住价格的库存水平。
Increase corn reserves when China sees bumper harvest and importif prices appropriate.
n因我国玉米需求量基数的增加，我国玉米的安全库存储备水平也应随之上涨。
With increased demand, the standard of national security stocks should be raised.
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（八）结论Conclusion
我国玉米供求格局发生了重大变化，由供需偏紧逐渐向供不应求转变，且趋势仍在延续。应对这种重大格局变化的解决办法只能通过：Tight supply steadily turns to deficit in supply and the
problem is worsening. Tips for solution:
n增加产量；Increase Production
n控制工业需求量；Curb Industrial Demandn进口增加供应；More Imports
n提高节约意识，减少浪费。Minimize Waste
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2011-2012季度中国玉米市场分析（冯吉龙总经理，汇易用）
