实现准确预报的降水预报模型构建方法研究
范严;程琳
【期刊名称】《计算机仿真》 【年(卷),期】2013(030)002
【摘要】研究降水预报模型的构建问题,提高预报准确度.在降水预报技术中,选用较多的预报因子构建预报模型并根据预报因子之间的联系训练得到准确模型,但受空气不稳定特性的影响使得预报因子之间的非线性联系极难准确描述,传统预报模型构建方法不能有效获取预报因子之间的联系,无法训练得到准确的预报模型,造成降水预报准确度不高的问题.为解决上述问题,提出模糊聚类算法构建降水预测模型的方法.根据空气的流动特性,采用模糊聚类算法分析预报因子内部的直接关联特性从而准确表述预报因子之间的联系,构建初始预报模型,并据最小二乘回归方法训练得到降水预报模型.实验表明,模糊聚类算法能够有效获取预报因子之间的联系,准确构建和训练预报模型,实现了降水的准确预报.%Research the construction of the precipitation forecast model to improve the forecast accuracy. In the precipitation forecast technology, choosing more predictors to construct forecast model, and training to get accurate model by the obtained relationship between the forecast factors, but the nonlinear contact between forecast factors is very difficult to describe because the influence of unstable air. In order to solve this problem, this paper put forward a new precipitation forecast model construction method based on fuzzy clustering algorithm. According to the flow characteristics of air, the fuzzy clustering
实现准确预报的降水预报模型构建方法研究
