Team Control Number
For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________
14820
Problem Chosen
For office use only
F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________
B
A computational-intelligence system for the River Trip
The Big Long River is well known as one of the natural wonders worldwide. Besides viewing the spectacular landscape, an extremely attractive recreational activity is river rafting on the Big Long River. Given the rise in popularity of river rafting, the park managers have been asked to allow more trips to travel down the river.
The paper develops a method to provide a management strategy by using statistical data and Computational-Intelligence-System (CIS). CIS is a computer program that models complicated, dynamic camp sites’ number Y interactions in the river corridor of the Big Long River. The system employs a data acquisition and simulator system. The database is a 18×13 matrix which gives every trip’s travel arrangement. The computer simulation contains data analysis and artificial intelligence in creating an individual-based modeling system.
The paper mainly use the model of the Computational-Intelligence-System(CIS) to search for how to make the optimal management strategies which mainly contain two parts:
The first part: the optimal schedule
CIS obey the principles of no two sets of campers can occupy the same site at the same time. CIS can put out the specific distribute of the camping sites, and the optimal schedules according to the value of the variables. The second part: Transfer Problem
According to the results of the first part, the table about changing boats can be obtained through calculation.
Finally, using program, assume Y=25, we gain a optimal schedule, named table 4. The table shows that the park entertains 318 travel trips in a tourist season, and the choice of ship types also is showed in the Table 5.
Contents
ANALYSIS OF THE SWEET SPOT ............................................................................ 1 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background 1 1.2 problem 1 2 ASSUMPTIONS ...................................................................................................... 2 3 SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS ........................................................................... 2 4 MODEL ................................................................................................................... 2 4.1 ANALYSIS OF THE ISSUE 1 .................................................................................... 2 4.1.1 What is the “carrying capacity” of the river ............................................... 2 4.1.2 The situations that adapt the “Carrying Capacity” ..................................... 3 4.1.3 Result of the issue 1 .................................................................................... 3 4.2 ANALYSIS OF THE ISSUE 2 .................................................................................... 3 4.2 .1 What is the meaning of fully used camping sites? ..................................... 3 4.2.2 How to make the best arrangement? ........................................................... 3 4.2.3 Result of the issue 2 .................................................................................... 7 4.3 ANALYSIS OF THE ISSUE 3 .................................................................................. 11 4.3.1 Why should passengers need to change boats? ......................................... 11 4.3.2 How to decide which boat should use? ..................................................... 11 4.3.3 Result of the issue 3 .................................................. 错误！未定义书签。 5 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESS OF THE MODEL .......... 错误！未定义书签。 6 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 12 7 APPENDIX 14
8 Memo 17
Team # 14820 Page 1 of 17
1 Introduction
The Big Long River is well known as one of the natural wonders worldwide. Besides viewing the spectacular landscape, an extremely attractive recreational activity is river rafting on the Big Long River.River trips are directed by schedules, which show the day trips start, the nature of any passenger exchanges that occur, and the day and location where the trips over.The model in this study will help the park managers make a determine to allow more trips to travel down the river.
1.1 Background
The Big Long River(225 miles) is inaccessible to hikers,if you want to experience a wilderness life,you have to take a river trip that requires a few days' camping. All trips must be start from First Launch to Final Exit end. The trips have different types, you can select 6 to 18 nights either way. Besides, you can also choose two different travel ways,one is oar- powered rubber raft,which travels on average 4 mph,the other is motorized boat, which travels on average 8 mph.
1.2 Problem
The growing number of tourists in recent years, scenic areas need a program so that more visitors can enjoy themselves. The question asks us to schedule an optimal mix of trips and make sure the campsites could be utilized in the best way possible, no matter which kind of boats.
Currently there are Y camp sites on the Big Long River, which distributed fairly uniformly throughout the river corridor. And the Big Long River accepted X trips each year,but it opened only six months each year because of the cold for river trips in the rest month of the year.
In addition to the above conditions,we should remember that no two sets of the campers can occupy the same site at the same time and with minimal contact with other groups of boats on the river.
Ultimately,taking into account the above conditions,we should give a reasonable time schedule so that the more trips can travel down the Big Long River.
In fact,the questions include 3 parts as follows:
? How to balance the carrying capacity of the Big Long River? ? How best to make full use of the camping sites? ? When should people change boats?
Team # 14820 Page 2 of 17
2 Assumptions
? ? ? ?
Suppose that the camping sites only fairly distribute along one side of the river. Suppose that all the trips obey the arrangements of the scenic when travelling. Suppose that the weather of the scenic is good in 6 months.
Suppose that drifting only during the daytime,people must stay at the camping sites during the nights.
? Boat speed is defined here as the average of the speed of the Big Long River.
3 Symbols and Definitions
? ? ? ? ? ? ?
X represents the total trips in 6 months.
Y represents the total numbers of the camping sites.
N is the total times that camping sites to be used in 29 days.
M is the number of camping sites which could be used in 29 days. W is the Camping point of utilization.
th
Ki is the numbers of the Iteams
K is the number of all the teams in 29 days travel.
4 Model
4.1 Analysis of the issue 1
4.1.1 What is the “carrying capacity” of the river?
What is the scientific definition for carrying capacity? Carrying capacity refers to the maximum population that a given environment and resource base can sustain.Understanding the impacts of human recreation on natural resources is of critical importance in constructing effective management strategies. According to this problem,it means that the maximum number of trip boats can be accepted by the Big Long River ever half of a year.
The experience tells us that if the machine works all day without rest,it will soon get some trouble. So all machines have regular working time. It is similar to the Big Long River.
Team # 14820 Page 3 of 17
4.1.2 The situations that adapt the “Carrying Capacity”.
Clearly,less trip boats make better carrying capacity.But it will get less income for the scenic. So we use the \working\model to describe the river's\Capacity\Each month the park has one day closed.Thus,the Big Long River can both accept more people and its\balance.
4.1.3 The result of issue 1
Considering the open days of the Big Long River,we assume that drifting in the same way in each month. That is to say the trips are in cycle for every month.That's more easier for manager to arrange the drifting plan. Also we assume the open days of each month is 29 days.So the open days of the scenic are 174 days(29×6=174) each year in total.
In this way the River could get the opportunity to relieve stress,and the scenic could earn as much as possible.After all,the environmental factors are very important.
4.2 Analysis of the issue 2
4.2.1 What is the meaning of fully used camping sites?
According to the first problem,the trips are in cycle for every month.All trips need to travel in the day time,so the camping sites should be used as many as possible at night.And then the scenic would have much chance to offer traveler better service. 4.2.2 The application of the CIS(Computational-Intelligence-System)
Obeying the principles of no two sets of campers can occupy the same site at the same time,A Computational-Intelligence-System (CIS) is a computer program that models complicated, dynamic camp sites’ number Y interactions in the river corridor of the Big Long River. The system employs a data acquisition and simulator system. The data acquisition is a 18*13 matrix which give every trip’s travel arrangement at night within the extent of the Big Long River Service. The computer simulation contains data analysis and artificial intelligence in creating an individual-based modeling system.
The paper mainly use the model of the Computational-Intelligence-System(CIS) to search for how to make the best management strategies
We know there are 18 camping sites along the river at least.In order to simplify the problem,assuming that a total of 25 spacing uniform distribution of camping sites.According to the principles of drifting the same distance everyday.We can also find out 13 different types of trips,which have different travel days,from 6 to 18
2012数学建模美赛论文 - 图文
