Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

DONG Sheng;CHEN Chengchao;TAO Shanshan;GAO Junguo

【期刊名称】《中国海洋大学学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2018(017)004

【摘要】Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures.However,frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level,whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge.The two impacting factors are both random variables,and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine

extreme

design

type

water 3,traditional

levels.The maximum

lognormal,Gumbel,Weibull,Pearson

entropy,and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately,and the bivariate normal,Gumbel-Hougaard,Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions.To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data,the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed.Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen