A Bayesian belief network approach for mapping water conservation ecosystem service optimi

A Bayesian belief network approach for mapping water conservation ecosystem service optimization

region

ZENG Li;LI Jing

【期刊名称】《地理学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2019(029)006

【摘要】Water conservation is one of the most important ecosystem services of terrestrial ecosystems.Identifying the optimization regions of water conservation using Bayesian belief networks not only helps develop a better understanding of water conservation processes but also increases the rationality of scenario design and pattern optimization.This study establishes a water conservation network model.The model,based on Bayesian belief networks,forecasts the distribution probability of the water conservation projected under different land use scenarios for the year 2050 with the CA-Markov model.A key variable subset method is proposed to optimize the spatial pattern

of

the

water

conservation.Three

key

findings

were

obtained.First,among the three scenarios,the probability of high water conservation value was the largest under the protection scenario,and the design of this scenario was conducive to the formulation of future land use policies.Second,the key influencing factors impacting the water conservation included precipitation,evapotranspiration and land