原 文：
Effects of Household Consumption Patterns on CO2 Requirements
Abstract
In order to evaluate the relation between the consumption pattern of various household types and their CO2 requirements, we combine input- output tables energy flow matrices, CO2 emissions factors, and national consumer survey statistics into an integrated modelling framework, and relate differences in household types to diff erences in private consumption and again to differences in CO2 emissions. We identify household characteristics with a signifcant influence on CO2 emissions. Comparing our results with those of other studies reveals that national differences in climate and population density cause differences in the contribution to CO2 emissions. Finally, national differences in income and expenditure elasticities of both energy and CO2 are due to differences in the disparity in CO2 intensities amongst commodities and to the model’s assumptions on foreign technology.
Keywords: CO2 emissions, consumption pattern, household characteristics 1. Introduction
In this study, we will evaluate the importance of household consumption pattern on CO2 requirements. We consider various household types, characterized by a number of socio-demographic variables, and examine their consumption patterns and associated CO2 emissions. We take into account direct CO2 requirements (emissions from fuels consumed directly in households) and indirect CO2 requirements (emissions incurred during the production of consumer goods). The aim of our work is to identify the most important factors inˉ uencing household CO2 emissions, and to compare our results with those found for other countries.
Our study is inspired by two diverging methodological traditions. During the past decade, there has been an increasing focus on the importance of lifestyle for the sustainable development of household consumption. The main part of these studies concentrates on socio-cultural factors from a sociological perspective, and stresses the importance of issues such as attitudes, values, the individual’s need for expressing identity through consumption of goods (e.g. Giddens, 1990; Mat esoli,1991; Beck,
1992). There is a long tradition of classifying consumer segments according to their values, lifestyle and their typical socio-demographic characteristics (Gunter & Furnham, 1992). Hence, socio-demographic variables may be the key to classifying various household types, dit ering in their consumption pattern and thus in their direct and indirect CO2 emissions.
Simultaneously, a number of studies emerged that focus on the demand for energy from an economic point of view. These studies apply quantitative models in order to explain changes in consumption patterns with changes in income and relative prices, often supplemented by technical information on electrical household equipment, improvements in thermal performance of housing, or energy production technology (see Madlener, 1996, or the review in Moroney, 1997).
The economic and the sociological approach supplement each other, but have so far bene? ted little from each other. Recently, however, several studies haveattempted to link household consumption choices by using input- output modelling and energy and/or emission ow analysis in one integrated modelling framework, see Wier (1998), Mukhopadhyay and Chakraborty (1999), Wilting et al. (1999), Jacobsen (2000), Munksgaard et al. (2000a, 2000b), and Lenzen (2001). Some studies go even further and include information on household characteristics. For example, the level of education, the number of children, urbanity and socioeconomic status have been included in the analysis and utilized as explanatory
variables in quantitative modelling (for the most recent studies, see Weber & Fahl, 1993; Vringer & Blok, 1995; Duchin, 1998; Lenzen, 1998; Biesiot & Noorman, 1999;Weber & Perrels, 2000). These studies do not only consider residential energy consumption and derived emissions, but also energy and emissions embodied in commodities other than energy.
In the present study, we combine several data sources and apply them in an integrated modelling framework following the tradition of the studies described above. This type of analysis has not been carried out for Danish data before, and the study benefitts from recent and detailed data on production sectors, commodities, energy types and household characteristics. We consider only CO2 emissions from energy,
since these constitute the majority (76%) of total Danish greenhouse gas emissions (National Environmental Research Institute, 2000). However, the analysis may easily be extended to other types of gases and emission sources. 2. Methods
The model relevant for our analysis is an extension of the model used by Munksgaard et al. (2000a, 2000b). In contrast to that study, however, we do not focus on CO2 emissions associated with the Danish private consumption at a national level, but on CO2 emissions at a single-household level, that is, the model is applied to various household types, making it possible to explore the importance of various household characteristics on CO2 emissions.
As in Munksgaard et al. (2000a, 2000b), we distinguish between direct and indirect emissions. Direct emissions are associated with the consumption of energy commodities, i.e. electricity, gas, oil, gasoline and other heating. Indirect emissions are associated with the production of all other commodities (such as furniture, clothes, foods, services), i.e. emissions that occur in the industry producing these Commodities.
2.1. Direct CO2 Emissions 2.2. Indirect CO2 Emissions 2.3. Consumer Units
2.4. Income and Expenditure Correlation Analysis 2.5. Analysis of Household Size 3. Data
All data used in this study are compatible, as they apply an identical classication of goods and activities, making it possible to utilize the data in an integrated model. The data used for the present analysis are the following.
· Danish input- output tables for the year 1995 from Statistics Denmark (tables documented in Statistics Denmark, 1986). These tables comprise 130 production sectors and nine categories of demand. One of the latter is private consumption, which is divided into 72 components, offve of which are direct energy consumption by households.
· Energyow matrices for the year 1995 from Statistics Denmark containing energy consumption for the 130 production sectors as well as.
· CO2 emission factors for the 37 primary fuels are part of the European CORINAIR database (Fenhann et al., 1997). The factors are calculated on The basis of the carbon content of the fuels. Emission factors for the energy types (electricity, district heating and gas) have previously been calculated from the primary emission factors and the energy inputs to the energy production sector (Munksgaard et al., 1998). Finally, CO2 emission factors for renewable energy types are considered to be zero, as it is assumed that CO2 emissions from, for example, straw and wood are absorbed in new bio-mass production.
· The consumer survey from Statistics Denmark (Statistics Denmark, 1999).
The survey comprises the consumption of 1334 commodities of 3438 representatively selected households. These 1334 commodities are aggregated to the 72 commodities of the input- output tables. The latest survey is based on data from 1995- 97. The households’ characteristics that are registered are various economic, nancial and demographic characteristics, e.g. number and age of children, number of adults, age of main income provider, type of accommodation, urbanity, socio-economic status and education of main income provider, and type and level of disposable household income and expenditure. 390 family types can be distinguished. Data are collected through registration of household purchases on a daily basis, supplemented by personal interviews and information from the registrars. The respondent rate is 68.5%.
As a step in the calculation procedure, the data are adjusted for the proportion of non-respondents, in order to give each household type the appropriate weight. 4. Results
Commodity CO2 Intensity， The Importance of Household Characteristics，CO2 Requirement for Selected Household Characteristics。Direct CO2 requirement. Furthermore, shows that urban families living in ˉ ats have the lowest direct CO2 emissions. In particular, low income urban families have direct CO2 emissions that
are approximately 3 t CO2 /consumer unit/ year (more than 50%) below the average of all Danish families. In contrast, rural families, especially high income families, have the highest direct CO2 emissions up to more than 10 t CO2 /consumer unit/year (or 78%) above the average of all Danish families. Families living in single-family houses in urban areas have lower emissions than similar families in rural areas. The age of the main income contributor seems to have minor importance compared with the type of accommodation and the disposable household income.
Indirect CO2 requirement. Indirect CO2 emissions increase with disposable household income. They type of accommodation, age and urbanity seem to be of very little importance. High income families show, in most cases, indirect CO2 emissions of more than 7 t CO2/consumer unit/year (or more than 40%) above the average of all families.
Household CO2 intensity. The CO2 intensity tells us how much CO2 is
emitted per unit of household consumption for each family type. Table 3 shows that the direct CO2 intensity largely follows the pattern of direct CO2 emissions, i.e. urban families living in ˉ ats have the lowest direct CO2 intensity within each income bracket. However, the CO2 intensity decreases with income, which is due to the saturation in the energy consumption with increasing income. In contrast, the indirect CO2 intensity varies little with family type, and is not decreasing with disposable household income. Thus, indirect CO2 emissions increase almost proportionally with total expenditure.
4.1. Commodity Group Breakdown
4.2. Correlations with Income, Expenditure and Household Size 5. Comparison with Previous Studies
The inffuence of household characteristics on energy and greenhouse gas requirements has been the subject of a number of previous studies carried out using data for countries other than Denmark, but applying the same method. A comparison of the results obtained in our study with previous results, and an interpretation of national dit erences will therefore be presented in the following
Finally, increasing the number of household members always reduces the
居民消费方式对二氧化碳的要求【外文翻译】
