风险的计量和报告提供给决策者与信息执行者决定和监测的结果,在它的前面和后面都采取策略来减轻。由于风险管理进程仍在进行,报告和反馈可以用来精化系统的修改或改进策略体系。
活跃的决策过程是风险管理的重要组成部分。讨论潜在的损失和为降低风险的决策提供了一个讨论重要问题与各种关于利益相关者的观点的场所。 财务比率的影响因素和价格
财务比率及价格受多项因素的影响。关键是要了解影响市场的因素,因为这些因素,反过来影响到一个组织的潜在风险。
影响利率的因素
利率是许多市场价格的主要组成部分和重要的经济晴雨表。它们是由真实利率加上通货膨胀的预期成分组成的,因为通货膨胀降低了贷款人的资产购买力。离到期日越近,它的不确定性就越大。利率也是资金的供给和需求和信贷风险的反射。
利率对企业和政府来说是非常重要的,因为他们是资金成本的关键因素。大多数公司和政府债务融资需要扩展和基建项目。当利率增加,对借款人有显著的影响。利率也影响到其他金融市场的价格,所以他们的影响是深远的。
对利率的其他组件可能包括一个风险溢价,以反映借款人的信用。例如,政治或主权风险的威胁可能导致利率上升,有时很大,因为随着投资者需求的增加,额外的补偿违约风险也会增加。
影响市场利率水平的因素包括: 1、通货膨胀的预期水平
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2、总体经济状况 3、货币政策和央行的立场 4、外汇市场活动
5、外国投资者对债务证券化的需求 6、外债突出的水平 7、金融和政治稳定 收益率曲线
收益率曲线产量是一种图形法,表示的是一系列条件成熟。例如,一个收益率曲线可能说明产量在(一天一夜之间成熟)30年里的关系。通常情况下,利率是零息政府率。
由于目前的利率反映的是预期的,收益曲线提供了有关未来市场预期的利率的有用信息。前向启动利率的默示条款可以计算收益曲线的信息。例如,使用一两个年到期利率,预计的一年期利率在一年的时间开始时才能确定。
对收益曲线的形状进行了分析和对广泛的市场参与者进行监测。由于人们对它的期望,它通常被认为是未来经济活动的预测和可能提供的经济基本面有待改变的信号。
一般产量的收益率曲线向上倾斜是具有正斜率,就像贷方或投资者要求更高的利率因为贷款期限和借款人的持续的时间更长了。由于期限至到期日,借款人违约的机会增加,贷款人要求相应的补偿。
利率构成的收益率曲线也受预期的通货膨胀率影响。除了借款人的贷款和风险的部分,投资者要求借款人至少达到预期的通货膨胀率。
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如果投资者预期的未来 的通胀率会变得更高, 他们将会被要求延长还款期限,以弥补这种不确定性产生的更多的保费。因此,期限越长,利率越高(在其它条件相同的情况),一个向上倾斜的收益率曲线就产 生。
有时,短期资金的需求大幅增加,短期利率可能上升超过了长期利率的水平。收益曲线向下倾斜,这是它的外观反演的结果。短期资金成本高,否则将有损于 通过投资获得扩张,使经济增长放缓或衰退。最后,利率上升使短期和长期资金的需求都减少。在所有利率下降到一个正常的曲线,可能会出现由于经济增长放缓而 带来的回报。
出处: [美]卡伦·A·霍契.《什么是财务风险管理?》.《财务风险管理要点》.
约翰.威立国际出版公司,2005:P1-22.
第二部分外文原文
Financial Risk Management
Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and
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subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.
What Is Risk?
Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.
Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.
Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of
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occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.
Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.
How Does Financial Risk?
Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.
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