ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTION CAPABILITY OF WEB SEARCH DATA BASED ON THE HE-TDC METHOD-PREDIC

ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTION CAPABILITY OF WEB SEARCH DATA BASED ON THE HE-TDC METHOD-PREDICTION OF THE VOLUME OF DAILY

TOURISM VISITORS

Geng Peng;Ying Liu;Jiyuan Wang;Jifa Gu

【期刊名称】《系统科学与系统工程学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2017(026)002

【摘要】Web search query data are obtained to reflect social spots and serve as novel economic indicators.When faced with high-dimensional query data,selecting keywords that have plausible predictive ability and can reduce dimensionality is critical.This paper presents a new integrative method that combines Hurst Exponent (HE) and Time Difference Correlation (TDC) analysis to select keywords with powerful predictive ability.The method is called the HE-TDC screening method and requires keywords with predictive ability to satisfy two characteristics,namely,high correlation and fluctuation memorability similar to the predicting target series.An empirical study is employed to predict the volume of tourism visitors in the Jiuzhai Valley scenic area.The study shows that keywords selected using HE-TDC method produce a model with better robustness and predictive ability. 【总页数】20页(163-182) 【关键词】