Regional Imports
Outlook for Fiscal 2020
U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2020 are forecast at $129.0 billion, $300 million less than the adjusted forecast for FY 2019. A decrease in U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2020 would mark the end of a steady period of import growth that dates back to FY 2016. Imports from almost every top trading region other than Southeast Asia and Mexico are expected to decrease. Asia - U.S. agricultural imports from Asia are projected to increase $500 million from the adjusted FY 2019 projections to $22.7 billion. Imports from Southeast Asia—projected to increase by $600 million above FY 2019’s levels to $13.6 billion in FY 2020—are a significant factor in the growth of imports from Asia as a whole. The sharp growth is due in large part to $300 and $400 million increase for FY 2020 projections for Vietnam and Indonesia, respectively, as Southeast Asia continues to grow as a major trading partner to the United States. U.S. agricultural imports from China are expected to increase $100 million above the adjusted FY 2019 forecast to $4.4 billion in FY 2020.
Western Hemisphere - Imports from the Western Hemisphere are forecast at $70.5 billion for FY 2020, $500 million less than the forecast level for FY 2019. A slight decrease in imports from every region within the hemisphere is expected. Imports from Canada and Mexico are down $100 million and $200 million, respectively, from the adjusted 2019 FY forecast to $23.1 billion and $26.9 billion for FY 2020.
Africa, Middle East, and Oceania - In FY 2020, the United States is forecast to have the same dollar value of agricultural imports from Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania as in FY 2019. Revised Outlook for Fiscal 2019
The forecast for U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2019 is revised upward by $300 million from the May forecast to $129.3 billion due to expectations of higher imports from Southeast Asia and Mexico.
Asia - The forecast for U.S. agricultural imports from Asia in FY 2019 is revised downward by $100 million from the May forecast to $22.2 billion. The slight decrease in imports from Asia is due in part to a $300 million decrease in expected imports from China to $4.3 billion for FY 2019. The fall is muted by a rise in agricultural imports from Singapore by $700 million, which is part of the Other Southeast Asia group.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2019 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Western Hemisphere - Imports from Canada are adjusted down $500 million to $23.2 billion, while imports from Mexico are up $800 million to $27.1 billion for FY 2019. Mexico continues an expansion of exports into the United States of almost every agricultural category, notably in fruits, vegetables, and livestock and meats. Imports from South America are down $100 million, due in large part to lower expectations for imports from Brazil and Chile by $100 million to $3.4 billion and $3.0 billion, respectively. These lowered expectations in South America were partially offset by an adjustment upward of $100 million for imports from Peru to $2.3 billion. Africa, Europe, Oceania, and the Middle East - Expected U.S. agricultural imports from Europe rise $200 million to $25.6 billion fueled by a $200 million rise in expected imports from EU countries, while imports from Africa are expected to rise $100 million to $3.0 billion. Oceania and the Middle East are unchanged.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2019 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, fiscal years 2018-20ForecastRegion and countryOctober - JuneFY2018VALUEWestern Hemisphere Canada Mexico Central America Costa Rica Guatemala Other Central America Caribbean South America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Other South AmericaEurope and Eurasia European Union-28 Other EuropeAsia East Asia China Other East Asia Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Other Southeast Asia South Asia IndiaOceania Australia New ZealandAfrica Sub-Sahara Ivory CoastMiddle East TurkeyWorld total53.124 17.087 20.523 4.173 1.266 1.617 1.290 0.535 10.805 1.055 2.584 2.413 1.998 1.606 1.149 18.820 17.661 1.159 16.753 4.925 3.577 1.348 9.551 2.695 0.781 1.950 1.766 2.359 2.277 2.002 4.483 2.409 1.999 2.580 2.149 0.705 1.206 0.810 97.14155.167 17.347 22.256 4.117 1.147 1.602 1.368 0.525 10.921 1.020 2.485 2.273 2.080 1.768 1.296 19.362 18.175 1.187 16.632 4.596 3.115 1.482 9.741 2.234 0.747 2.101 1.485 3.173 2.294 2.021 4.447 2.541 1.823 2.486 2.093 0.619 1.192 0.798 99.49968.90122.96425.6605.4601.6392.1321.6890.71314.1041.4153.3823.0402.5702.1691.52825.26023.7131.54722.4826.5684.7751.79312.8893.4810.9992.6382.3833.3893.0242.6625.9543.2612.5863.2522.7020.8531.4880.987127.55570.923.726.35.61.72.21.70.814.51.43.53.12.62.21.725.423.91.571.023.227.15.51.62.21.80.814.41.43.43.02.62.31.725.624.11.522.26.24.31.913.03.11.02.72.24.03.02.76.03.52.53.02.50.81.51.0129.370.523.126.95.51.72.11.70.714.31.43.53.02.62.31.525.323.81.522.76.14.41.713.63.51.02.62.54.03.02.76.03.42.73.02.60.91.51.0129.0FY2019Fiscal year 2018---Billion dollars---Fiscal year 2019MayAug.ForecastFiscal year 2020Aug.22.36.54.61.912.83.51.02.62.43.33.02.76.03.42.52.92.50.91.51.0129.0Totals may not add due to rounding.Sources: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture and U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2019 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Reliability Tables
Table 7--Reliability of quarterly U.S. export projections, by commodity and quarterAverage absolute forecast errorsFiscal 2018CommodityExport valueGrains and feeds Wheat Rice Coarse grains Corn Feeds and foddersOilseeds and products Soybeans Soybean meal Soybean oilLivestock, poultry, and dairy Livestock products Beef and veal Pork Beef and pork variety meats Hides, skins, and furs Poultry and products Broiler meat Dairy productsTobacco, unmanufacturedCottonPlanting seedsHorticultural products Fruits and vegetables, fresh Fruits and veget., processed Tree nutsSugar and tropical productsMajor bulk productsTotal agricultural exportsRoot mean square errorExport volumeWheatRiceCoarse grainsCornFeeds and foddersSoybeansSoybean mealSoybean oilBeef and vealPorkBeef and pork variety meatsBroiler meatTobacco, unmanufacturedCottonMajor bulk productsRoot mean square errorAugNovFebPercent5171518204122122018117275409182047335312MayAugAugForecast accuracyFiscal 2018NovFebMayForecastAugaccuracy 1/Percent60040202080806020601001002010020206060100020100100100201001001001006192712929105112033417117277929322047334314625152525451221113314410275709272047332213015149930111001911014554962047331171134313013100211300194210223103--X---X--XXX-X----X--XXX-XXXX48%\-XX------------XXX-XX-XX-----XXXXXXX---XXX------XX--XXXXX------XXXXXXXXX---XXXXXXXXXXXX45YY%X-XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX-XXXXXXXXX93 27242617171080230415516262422243817104123228123171817151931171941231281241513148101114103290284211134221051101128418----X----X-XX--27%----X---XX-X--X33%----XX--XX-X--X40%----XX--XX-X-XX47%-XXXXXXXXXXX-XX87020201006020208010020100204080471/ Percent of forecasts with errors less than or equal to 5 percent, as denoted by an X.Compiled by Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2019 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 8--Reliability of quarterly U.S. export projections, by country and quarterAverage absolute forecast errorsFiscal 2018Country/regionExport valueAsia East Asia Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan South Korea Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Vietnam South Asia IndiaWestern Hemisphere North America Canada Mexico Caribbean Dominican Republic Central America South America Brazil Colombia Peru VenezuelaEurope and Eurasia European Union-28 Other Europe FSU-12 RussiaMiddle East Turkey Saudi ArabiaAfrica North Africa Egypt Sub-Saharan Africa NigeriaOceaniaRoot mean square errorAug.Nov.Feb.Percent259322131618612621282750332366111991714772634581751734531348719MayAug.Aug.Forecast accuracyFiscal 2018Nov.Feb.MayForecastAug.accuracy 1/PercentXXX-X---XXXX-X-XXXXX-X--XX-XX---XXXXXX-X6302020060000202020200206010010010010010002000202004020000404010020202000203026123910131621612621382750130366771917147726345817517345313487222612391013161861262128275033236677191714772634581751734531348722176322131414686122014803333661415917145626125315122335134871513517287505428281333361815221423810531542061827X-------------1XXXXX--------------X------20%\XXX----------XX---------------------------XX-XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX-----------------------X--------------X--XXXX-------------------20"'%1/ Percent of forecasts with errors less than or equal to 5 percent, as denoted by an X.Compiled by Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2019 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
美国农业贸易展望2019年08月
