Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report AES-109 | August 29, 2024 Next release is November 28, 2024
Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
Kamron Daugherty, coordinator Hui Jiang, coordinator
FY 2024 Exports Forecast Up $2.5 Billion to $137.0 Billion; Imports at $129.0 Billion
U.S. agricultural exports are projected to reach $137.0 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, up $2.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2024. This anticipated increase is primarily driven by higher exports of pork, beef, soybeans, and horticultural products. Pork exports are forecast at $6.3 billion (up $800 million from FY 2024) as a result of higher volumes and unit values, partially resulting from the repeal of Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs and an increase in global pork demand due to the African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic. Beef and veal exports are forecast at $7.8 billion (up $300 million from FY 2024) on higher volumes and unit values. Horticultural exports are forecast up $500 million to $35.5 billion with higher sales of food preparations, beer, and mixed seasonings. Soybean exports are forecast to rise $400 million to $16.8 billion on higher volumes. Cotton exports are forecast up $100 million to $5.8 billion. Grain and feed exports are unchanged. Exports to Canada and Mexico are forecast at $21.5 billion (up $400 million from FY 2024) and $19.8 billion (up $500 million), respectively. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $7.5 billion, an increase of $200 million from FY 2024, on higher expected pork sales.
U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2024 are forecast at $129.0 billion, $300 million lower than FY 2024 primarily due to decreases in horticultural product imports. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to increase by $2.8 billion in FY 2024 to $8.0 billion.
For FY 2024, the export forecast of $134.5 billion represents a reduction of $2.5 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to reductions in exports of corn, soybeans, and other oilseeds. The import
forecast is raised by $300 million to $129.3 billion.
Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board The forecasts in this report are based on policies in effect at the time of the August 12 WASDE release.
Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 2013-20, year ending September 30Forecast fiscal year*Item2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2024 2024 MayBillion dollarsExportsImportsBalance141.1 103.9 37.3 152.3 109.3 43.1 139.8 114.2 25.5 129.6 113.0 16.6 140.2 119.1 21.1 143.4 127.6 15.8 137.0 129.0 8.0 134.5 129.3 5.2 137.0 129.0 8.0 Aug.2024 Aug.*Reflect forecasts in the August 12, 2024, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Source: Compiled by USDA using data from U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2024 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Economic Outlook
Economic growth slows while uncertainty increases
Per capita world gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 1.6 percent in 2024, up slightly from 1.5 percent in 2024. This quarter’s projected per capita GDP growth for 2024 is down 25 percent from last quarter’s projection, and this quarter’s projection for 2024 is 15 percent lower. The U.S.-China trade conflict, Brexit, and the developing trade dispute between Japan and South Korea are some of the key uncertainties slowing global trade and investment and pushing forecasts for economic growth lower.
Compared with last quarter’s projections, U.S. per capita GDP growth was adjusted down to 1.6 percent for 2024 and 1.3 percent for 2024. The U.S. labor market—with 3.7 percent unemployment in August— and continued consumer confidence are providing a floor to an otherwise cooling economy.
The dollar is expected to strengthen into 2024. Due to lowered risk of inflation and some concerns about the potential for a slowing domestic economy, the Federal Reserve lowered its short-term interest rates for the first time in a decade on July 31. The Federal Reserve has not ruled out additional easing if the economic outlook does not improve. Economic growth in the United States is expected to continue to drive investors toward safe and relatively high-yielding U.S. assets, especially as uncertainty dominates global financial markets.
Oil prices are still expected to decrease in 2024 relative to 2024, with Brent crude spot prices forecast to average $64 per barrel for the remainder of the year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Stability will extend into 2024, with Brent crude oil prices rising by a dollar to $65 per barrel. Continued stability in oil prices will aid farmers, manufacturers, fertilizer producers, and farm product exporters.
Within the uncertain global trade environment, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) continues to await legislative approval in Canada and the United States; the Mexican Congress ratified the USMCA in June 2024. Trade and economic uncertainty is weighing on the economic outlook for both Mexico and Canada. Mexico’s per capita 2024 GDP growth projection was lowered to -0.7 percent, and a growth rate of just 0.3 percent is projected for 2024. Current GDP projections for Canada are also modest: 0.5 percent for 2024 and 0.4 percent for 2024.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2024 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Per capita GDP in Latin America is projected to contract by 0.3 percent in 2024 and then expand by 0.6 percent in 2024. Argentina’s recession continues, with a 2.8-percent decrease in per capita GDP projected for 2024. The country continues to suffer from austerity programs intended to bring inflation and the government deficit under control, and from uncertainty regarding future government policy in light of the upcoming national elections in late October. Nonetheless, Argentina’s economy is projected to recover in 2024, with projected per capita GDP growth of 0.2 percent.
The projected level of per capita GDP growth in Asia and Oceania was adjusted down slightly to 3.7 percent for 2024 and 3.6 percent for 2024. Trade tensions have lowered per capita GDP growth prospects in 2024 and 2024 for both South Korea (1.5 and 1.9 percent, respectively) and Japan (1.3 and 0.6 percent, respectively). China’s per capita GDP growth is projected at 5.7 percent in 2024 and 5.4 percent in 2024, and India’s is projected at 5.5 percent in 2024 and 5.9 percent in 2024.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2024 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 2--Macroeconomic variables affecting U.S. agricultural exports 1/Real exchange rate 2/2024Region/Country 3/World0.1NAFTA-1.3United States--Canada0.3Mexico-3.4Emerging Markets0.4Brazil2.1Russia0.9India0.4Indonesia-1.6China0.3Europe & Central Asia0.1Euro Zone1.3Ukraine-7.8Turkey-3.4Asia & Oceania1.1Japan0.8South Korea3.1Australia1.1Other SE Asia 4/0.1Latin America-2.7Argentina15.4Other S. America 5/-0.1Middle East & N. Africa-2.8Sub-Saharan Africa-0.21/ Real values have a 2010 base year.20240.1-1.3--0.3-3.40.42.10.90.4-1.60.30.11.3-7.8-3.41.10.83.11.10.1-2.715.4-0.1-2.8-0.2Percent change1.50.91.60.5-0.74.9-0.11.25.53.95.70.81.03.5-2.73.71.31.50.54.3-0.3-2.81.3-0.20.2Real GDP per capita202420241.61.01.30.40.35.00.91.75.94.05.40.80.93.21.03.60.61.91.14.40.60.21.71.10.6Growth rate100.027.724.12.01.624.12.21.83.21.215.824.915.40.11.234.05.72.01.61.74.60.81.14.22.0Share of WorldGDPPopulation2016-18 Average100.06.54.30.51.745.02.81.917.83.518.99.34.50.61.155.21.70.70.34.05.80.61.86.513.3100.028.4--15.013.516.00.50.21.12.112.110.47.00.11.144.48.75.21.06.223.90.33.65.91.2Share of U.S.Ag. exports2/ Local currency per U.S. dollar. A negative growth rate indicates a depreciation of the dollar. World real exchange rate is a U.S. agricultural exports-weighted index. 3/ Regional values for Real Exchange rates are growth in GDP-weighted average of country real exchange rate index. 4/ Includes Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.5/ Includes Chile, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay.Source: Calculations and compilation by U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service using data and forecasts from Global Insight,the International Monetary Fund, and Oxford Economics.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-109, August 29, 2024 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
美国农业贸易展望2024年08月
