The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model

The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast

experiments using the FGOALS-g model

YAN Li;YU Yongqiang

【期刊名称】《中国海洋湖沼学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2012(030)006

【摘要】The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g) was used to study the spring prediction barrier (SPB) in an ensemble system.This coupled model was developed and maintained at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG).There are two steps in our hindcast experiments.The first is to integrate the coupled model continuously with sea surface temperature (SST) nudging,from 1971 to 2006.The second is to carry out a series of one-year hindcasts without SST nudging,by adopting initial values from the first step on January 1st,April 1st,July 1st,and October 1st,from 1982 to 2005.We generate 10 ensemble members for a particular start date (1st) by choosing different atmospheric and land conditions around the hindcast start date (1st through 10th).To estimate the predicted SST,two methods are used:(1) Anomaly Correlation Coefficient and its rate of decrease; and (2) Talagrand distribution and its standard deviation.Results show that FGOALS-g offers a reliable ensemble system with realistic initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions,and high anomaly correlation (＞