Influence of high automation on future work
he future of employment: how sustainable are jobs to computing? * Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne predict that a lot of future work will be replaced by artificial intelligence. In fact, their predictions have been verified by reality. But the reality has proved that the benefits of artificial intelligence to human beings are much greater than the disadvantages. This paper will mainly demonstrate that artificial intelligence will make our life better, not disaster.
In 2013, two researchers in the field of artificial intelligence from Oxford University, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, published their paper \are jobs to computerisation?\In this paper, 702 types of work are analyzed and predicted in detail, and according to the size of the risk coefficient, the potential of work replaced by artificial intelligence in the future is ranked. The conclusion is that in the next decade, nearly half of the occupations will gradually disappear, of which 47% are in danger.
Among the 702 types of work mentioned in the study, they can be roughly divided into three categories according to the speed of disappearance (the following are just some examples):
The first category: it will disappear
1. Drivers, truck drivers will be eliminated before bus drivers.
2. Captain, pilot and other motor driving related to human life.
According to statistics, 82% of air disasters in 1950-2019 were caused by human beings. People will be affected by mood, fatigue and other factors. With the improvement of autopilot technology, it is inevitable that pilots and helmsman will be replaced.
3. Store clerk.
For example, Tesla has announced that in the future, 4S stores will be sold in an unmanned way. Customers will pay and take the key after knowing the car's situation and performance comparison, without the presence of a clerk.
4. Translation work. Translation and interpretation will disappear.
5. Foreign language teacher.
Because translation software will replace this kind of work, we have no need to learn a foreign language, so the profession of foreign language teacher will disappear.
6. Referees of sports events.
7. The company's non core technology white-collar and administrative / secretarial jobs.
From 2013, IBM human resources department began to use AI to carry out a series of human resources related work, including predicting the risk of employee turnover, taking measures to retain talents in advance, guiding employees to improve their skills, identifying bias factors in the recruitment process, and reducing the risk of error in talent introduction.
In just one year, AI's work has saved IBM nearly $100 million worldwide, greatly improving the satisfaction of employees and management.
8. Firefighters and criminal investigators.
This kind of working machine with high risk and small error requirements is more suitable.
Second: jobs that don't disappear:
1. Primary school teachers.
Different from the junior and senior high school students, primary school students do not have the consciousness of independent learning, and need to be led and supervised.
2. Judge.
From the perspective of human relations, human beings should not be able to accept machines to convict us and determine our life and death.
3. Clergy.
4. Set up creative planners, singers, musicians and writers.
AI is hard to replace us when it comes to innovation, imagination and self-awareness.
The third kind: work that will not be temporarily but will disappear in the future:
1. Doctor.
The main work of most general doctors is to see the symptoms and judge the disease through the test results. In this respect, machines are more accurate than people.
2. Programmer.
Before AI is completed, there are a lot of needs. After AI is completed, AI will program itself. But the system engineers and architects in programmers will disappear later than ordinary programmers.
2045
We're going to lose our jobs collectively?
If it is true that human work will be replaced by artificial intelligence, when will we start to lose our jobs? The time point calculated in this paper is 2045. In this year, not everyone will be out of work, but a lot of work will start to be done.
In the next 45 years, the probability that AI system can accomplish better than human in every task is 50%; in the next 122 years, the probability that AI will automate all human work is about 50%.
The above is a rough analysis and calculation of the future of our work by two researchers.
We should treat their prediction dialectically. Objectively speaking, a lot of traditional work has been replaced or is being replaced by artificial intelligence. In this respect, their prediction is correct, and the reality has also proven the accuracy of their prediction. But on the other hand, there is no widespread unemployment in the society. For example, the unemployment rate in the United States was declining before the new crown epidemic, which proves that artificial intelligence is not a monster. Since ancient times, after the emergence of technological innovation, traditional industries have been replaced by new industries, while the society is developing forward as always, without half a moment's stay. After all, with the development of human civilization, people will not lament the disappearance of the once extremely advanced movable type printing, but focus on how to develop a more advanced printing technology than today's laser typesetting technology. As an employee, what counts is to improve their quality, so as to ensure that they can find their own place in the new jobs in the future.
Since the era of steam turbine, human beings have experienced four industrial revolutions. Every revolution made some traditional jobs disappear, but at the same time, it also increased new employment opportunities. History has proved that in the process of innovation, some traditional industries will disappear, which will bring pain to the employees of these industries, which is inevitable. But after the pain, some of them will find new jobs in other fields after receiving re -education.
In the first wave of industrial revolution, traditional handicraft labor was replaced by automatic machinery. Some craftsmen lost their jobs, but at the same time it created a lot of other jobs. For example, a large number of low skilled industrial workers were needed in the assembly line. Meanwhile, the demand for high skilled talents in factories was increasing, such as managers, machinists and engineers。Data show that from 1850 to 1910, the proportion of low skilled workers in employment in the United States increased from 58% to 65%, while that of high skilled workers increased from 3% to 12%.
So what changes will the AI wave bring? Take a look at a McKinsey Global Institute study:
According to a new report, by 2030, there will be about 800 million jobs around the world that will disappear because of the popularization of automation technology. The report, from the McKinsey Institute for global research, said that the progress of artificial intelligence and robotics will have a huge impact on human daily life and work, even comparable to the second industrial revolution that helped human beings transform from an agricultural society to an industrial society. In the United States alone, between 39 million and 73 million jobs will be replaced by automation technology, accounting for about a third of the total workforce.
But the report also points out that, as in the past, technological advances will not just have a purely negative impact. There will be more new jobs, and now some industries will be redefined, and workers will face a lot of opportunities to change careers. The report's authors say the challenge for this generation is to get through the transition better. Income inequality will increase and even lead to political instability. Those who need training again are not college students or young people, but most of them are middle-aged professionals.
“Today, while industrial robots, digital technologies and computer-controlled machines replace labor, we are again witnessing the emergence of new tasks ranging from engineering and programming functions to those performed by audio-visual specialists, executive assistants, data administrators and analysts, meeting planners and computer support specialists. Indeed, during the last 30 years, new tasks and new job titles account for a large fraction of U.S. employment growth. ”【1】This also proves my view that the wave of information technology will make some professions disappear and create more new professions at the same time .
Opportunities always favor those who are prepared. In order to deal with the challenges of the future, as an employee, whether you are young or middle-aged, you must first have a sense of crisis. Maybe the idea of working for a lifetime is out of date. We need to be fully prepared for the challenges ahead. To do this, we need to learn to analyze. Analyze the current situation of the global employment market, the situation of the employment market in your country, the current situation and prospects of your industry, as well as your personal strengths and weaknesses. Based on the above analysis, make a prediction of your future work, and make a personal transformation plan. You need to relearn, maybe go to school, or attend a training class. You need to constantly update yourself.” It's never too late to learn” is not just a proverb , but a principle to deal with future challenges.
The following two charts can well show the changes in the employment situation that have taken place.
Insert chart job polarization change in employment share, 1995-2012
Through this chart, we can see clearly that in the employment market from 1995 to 2012, the proportion of high skilled talents was increasing, while the employment of low skilled talents was decreasing. This trend is very star.
Insert chart centralized employment black Americans
This chat shows that the unemployment rate of white Americans is significantly higher than that of black Americans, which is the most direct reflection of their education level on employment. Of course, the government must also respond to future changes. And the government will play a leading part in solving the future employment crisis.
First of all, the government should make clear that improving people's livelihood is the ultimate goal of development and the primary function of the government. The ultimate goal of the development of human civilization is not the accumulation of capital, but the improvement of people's quality of life and the liberation of people from labor. \-work world is therefore not a world of idleness; rather, it is a world in which people are no longer bound to their jobs, but free to create their own lives. Such a project draws upon a long line of thinkers – Marxists, Keynesians, feminists, black nationalists and anarchists alike – who have rejected the centrality of work.1 These thinkers have, each in their own way, sought to liberate humanity from the drudgery of work, the dependence on wage labour, and the submission of our lives to a boss. They have struggled to open up the ‘realm of freedom’From which humanity can continue its project of governance. ” 【2】 the government can do a lot in this regard. For example, reduce the working time every week to three or even two days a day. Increase the proportion of employment in the service secto as in the field of service industry, a lot of work can not be replaced by artificial intelligence. After all, we serve people, which involves the emotional communication between people. Artificial intelligence can't completely replace human in emotional communication. In nursing homes, the experience of the elderly being taken care of by robots is totally different from that of being taken care of by people.Of course, the ultimate solution is to change the distribution system and the nature of capital, which involves politics.“Thoughtful regulatory dialog and policy making will be important to ensure that the benefits of automation are achieved while protecting other societal concerns. Engaging a broader societal dialog about automation, the need for productivity growth, and shifts in labor markets is another role that policy-makers can play.”【3】
On the whole, AI is not terrible. Every industrial revolution has greatly promoted social development and greatly improved people's living standards. After all, technology has always been for human beings, not to challenge them.
References
1 Acemoglu,Dron ,and Pascual Restrepo. “The race between machine and man:Implications and Technology for Growth ,Factor Shares and Employment”
2 “Inventing the future by Srnicek, Nick, and Alex Williams (2015) Inventing the Future, Chapter
5_1 3 “A future that works :Automation ,Employment and Productivity .”James Manyika | San
Francisco Michael Chui | San Francisco Mehdi Miremadi | Chicago Jacques Bughin | Brussels Katy George | New Jersey Paul Willmott | London Martin Dewhurst | London
高度自动化对未来就业的影响
