Comparison of four prognostic models and a new Logistic regression model to predict short-

Comparison of four prognostic models and a new Logistic regression model to predict short-term prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver

failure

HE Wei-ping;HU Jin-hua;ZHAO Jun;TONG Jing-jing;DING Jin-biao;LIN Fang;WANG Hui-fen

【期刊名称】《中华医学杂志（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2012(125)013

【摘要】Background Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACLF-HBV) is a clinically severe disease associated with major life-threatening complications including hepatic encephalopathy and hepatorenal syndrome.The aim of this study was to evaluate the short-term prognostic predictability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD),MELD-based indices,and their dynamic changes in patients with ACLF-HBV,and to establish a new model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF-HBV.Methods A total of 172 patients with ACLF-HBV who stayed in the hospital for more than 2 weeks were retrospectively recruited.The predictive accuracy of MELD,MELD-based indices,and their dynamic change (△) were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method.The associations between mortality and patient characteristics were studied by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results The 3-month mortality was 43.6％.The largest