Chapter 14 (3)
Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach
? Chapter Organization
Exchange Rates and International Transactions Domestic and Foreign Prices Exchange Rates and Relative Prices The Foreign Exchange Market The Actors
Box: Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency Wars Characteristics of the Market Spot Rates and Forward Rates Foreign Exchange Swaps Futures and Options
The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets Assets and Asset Returns
Box: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia Risk and Liquidity Interest Rates
Exchange Rates and Asset Returns A Simple Rule
Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market
Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition
How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns The Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium
The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate Case Study: What Explains the Carry Trade? Summary
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 14 (3): Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity
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? Chapter Overview
The purpose of this chapter is to show the importance of the exchange rate in translating foreign prices into domestic values as well as to begin the presentation of exchange rate determination. Central to the treatment of exchange rate determination is the insight that exchange rates are determined in the same way as other asset prices. The chapter begins by describing how the relative prices of different countries’ goods are affected by exchange rate changes. This discussion illustrates the central importance of exchange rates for cross-border economic linkages. The determination of the level of the exchange rate is modeled in the context of the exchange rate’s role as the relative price of foreign and domestic currencies, using the uncovered interest parity relationship.
The euro is used often in examples. Some students may not be familiar with the currency or aware of which countries use it; a brief discussion may be warranted. A full treatment of EMU and the theories surrounding currency unification appears in Chapter 20(9).
The description of the foreign exchange market stresses the involvement of large organizations (commercial banks, corporations, nonbank financial institutions, and central banks) and the highly integrated nature of the market. The nature of the foreign exchange market ensures that arbitrage occurs quickly so that common rates are offered worldwide. A comparison of the trading volume in foreign exchange markets to that in other markets is useful to underscore how quickly price arbitrage occurs and equilibrium is restored. Forward foreign exchange trading, foreign exchange futures contracts, and foreign exchange options play an important part in currency market activity. The use of these financial instruments to eliminate short-run exchange rate risk is described.
The explanation of exchange rate determination in this chapter emphasizes the modern view that exchange rates move to equilibrate asset markets. The foreign exchange demand and supply curves that introduce exchange rate determination in most undergraduate texts are not found here. Instead, there is a discussion of asset pricing and the determination of expected rates of return on assets denominated in different currencies.
Students may already be familiar with the distinction between real and nominal returns. The text demonstrates that nominal returns are sufficient for comparing the attractiveness of different assets. There is a brief description of the role played by risk and liquidity in asset demand, but these considerations are not pursued in this chapter. (The role of risk is taken up again in Chapter 18[7].)
Substantial space is devoted to the topic of comparing expected returns on assets denominated in domestic and foreign currency. The text identifies two parts of the expected return on a foreign currency asset (measured in domestic currency terms): the interest payment and the change in the value of the foreign currency relative to the domestic currency over the period in which the asset is held. The expected return on a foreign asset is calculated as a function of the current exchange rate for given expected values of the future exchange rate and the foreign interest rate.
The absence of risk and liquidity considerations implies that the expected returns on all assets traded in the foreign exchange market must be equal. It is thus a short step from calculations of expected returns on foreign assets to the interest parity condition. The foreign exchange market is shown to be in equilibrium only when the interest parity condition holds. Thus, for given interest rates and given expectations about future exchange rates, interest parity determines the current equilibrium exchange rate. The interest parity diagram introduced here is instrumental in later chapters in which a more general model is presented. Because a command of this interest parity diagram is an important building block for future work, we recommend drills that employ this diagram.
The result that a dollar appreciation makes foreign currency assets more attractive may appear counterintuitive to students—why does a stronger dollar reduce the expected return on dollar assets? The key to explaining this point is that, under the static expectations and constant interest rates assumptions, a dollar appreciation today implies a greater future dollar depreciation; so, an American investor can expect to gain not only the
Chapter 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 77
foreign interest payment but also the extra return due to the dollar’s additional future depreciation. The following diagram illustrates this point. In this diagram, the exchange rate at time t ? 1 is expected to be equal to E. If the exchange rate at time t is also E, then expected depreciation is 0. If, however, the exchange rate depreciates at time t to E?? then it must appreciate to reach E at time t ??1. If the exchange rate appreciates today to E?? then it must depreciate to reach E at time t ??1. Thus, under static expectations, a depreciation today implies an expected appreciation and vice versa.
Figure 14(3)-1
This pedagogical tool can be employed to provide some further intuition behind the interest parity
relationship. Suppose that the domestic and foreign interest rates are equal. Interest parity then requires that the expected depreciation is equal to zero and that the exchange rate today and next period is equal to E. If the domestic interest rate rises, people will want to hold more domestic currency deposits. The resulting increased demand for domestic currency drives up the price of domestic currency, causing the exchange rate to appreciate. How long will this continue? The answer is that the appreciation of the domestic currency continues until the expected depreciation that is a consequence of the domestic currency’s appreciation today just offsets the interest differential.
The text presents exercises on the effects of changes in interest rates and of changes in expectations of the future exchange rate. These exercises can help develop students’ intuition. For example, the initial result of a rise in U.S. interest rates is a higher demand for dollar-denominated assets and thus an increase in the price of the dollar. This dollar appreciation is large enough that the subsequent expected dollar depreciation just equalizes the expected return on foreign currency assets (measured in dollar terms) and the higher dollar interest rate.
The chapter concludes with a case study looking at a situation in which interest rate parity may not hold: the carry trade. In a carry trade, investors borrow money in low-interest currencies and buy high-interest-rate currencies, often earning profits over long periods of time. However, this transaction carries an element of risk as the high-interest-rate currency may experience an abrupt crash in value. The case study discusses a popular carry trade in which investors borrowed low-interest-rate Japanese yen to purchase high-interest-rate Australian dollars. Investors earned high returns until 2008, when the Australian dollar abruptly crashed, losing 40 percent of its value. This was an especially large loss as the crash occurred amidst a financial crisis in which liquidity was highly valued. Thus, when we factor in this additional risk of the carry trade, interest rate parity may still hold.
The Appendix describes the covered interest parity relationship and applies it to explain the determination of forward rates under risk neutrality as well as the high correlation between movements in spot and forward rates.
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? Answers to Textbook Problems
1. At an exchange rate of 1.05 $ per euro, a 5 euro bratwurst costs 1.05$/euro ? 5 euros ? $5.25. Thus,
the bratwurst in Munich is $1.25 more expensive than the hot dog in Boston. The relative price is $5.25/$4 ? 1.31. A bratwurst costs 1.31 hot dogs. If the dollar depreciates to 1.25$/euro, the bratwurst now costs 1.25$/euro ? 5 euros ? $6.25, for a relative price of $6.25/$4 ? 1.56. You have to give up 1.56 hot dogs to buy a bratwurst. Hot dogs have become relatively cheaper than bratwurst after the depreciation of the dollar. 2. If it were cheaper to buy Israeli shekels with Swiss francs that were purchased with dollars than to
directly buy shekels with dollars, then people would act upon this arbitrage opportunity. The demand for Swiss francs from people who hold dollars would rise, causing the Swiss franc to rise in value against the dollar. The Swiss franc would appreciate against the dollar until the price of a shekel would be exactly the same whether it was purchased directly with dollars or indirectly through Swiss francs. 3. Take for example the exchange rate between the Argentine peso, the US dollar, the euro, and the
British pound. One dollar is worth 5.3015 pesos, while a euro is worth 7.0089 pesos. To rule out triangular arbitrage, we need to see how many pesos you would get if you first bought euros with your dollars (at an exchange rate of 0.7564 euros per dollar), then used these euros to buy pesos. In other words, we need to compute EARG.USD = EEUR/USD × EARG/EUR = 0.7564× 7.0089 = 5.3015 pesos per dollar. This is almost exactly (with rounding) equal to the direct rate of pesos per dollar. Following the same procedure for the British pound yields a similar result. We need to say that triangular arbitrage is “approximately” ruled out for several reasons. First,
rounding error means that there may be some small discrepancies between the direct and indirect exchange rates we calculate. Second, transactions costs on trading currencies will prevent complete arbitrage from occurring. That said, the massive volume of currencies traded make these transactions costs relatively small, leading to “near” perfect arbitrage. 4. A depreciation of Chinese yuan makes the import more expensive. Since the demand for oil is
inelastic, China needs to import oil from the oil exporting countries. This leads to spending more on oil when the exchange rate falls in value. This can cause the balance of payment to worsen in the short run. Hence, a depreciation of domestic currency may or may not have a favourable impact on the balance of payment in the short run. 5. The dollar rates of return are as follows:
a. ($250,000 ? $200,000)/$200,000 ? 0.25. b. ($275 ? $255)/$255 ? 0.08.
c. There are two parts to this return. One is the loss involved due to the appreciation of the dollar;
the dollar appreciation is ($1.38 ? $1.50)/$1.50 ? ?0.08. The other part of the return is the interest paid by the London bank on the deposit, 10 percent. (The size of the deposit is immaterial to the calculation of the rate of return.) In terms of dollars, the realized return on the London deposit is thus 2 percent per year.
Chapter 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 79
6. Note here that the ordering of the returns of the three assets is the same whether we calculate real or
nominal returns.
a. The real return on the house would be 25 percent ? 10 percent ? 15 percent. This return could
also be calculated
by first finding the portion of the $50,000 nominal increase in the house’s price due to inflation ($20,000), then finding the portion of the nominal increase due to real appreciation ($30,000), and finally finding the appropriate real rate of return ($30,000/$200,000 ? 0.15).
b. Again, subtracting the inflation rate from the nominal return, we get 8 percent ? 10 percent ? ?2
percent.
c. 2 percent ? 10 percent ? ?8 percent.
7. The expected rate of MYR depreciation against the euro is (3.15- 3.00)/3.00 =0.05 or 5% per year.
The expected gain to Volkswagen, if there is no change in exchange rate, was = 700,000 × 0.05 = 35,000 euro.
After the change in exchange rate the expected MYR depreciation is = (3.15 – 3.10)/3.10 = 0.0161 or 1.61% instead of 5%. Now, after the change in today’s exchange rate, the expected bonus declines. The expected gain would be = 700,000 × 0.0161 = 11,270. Hence the loss in bonus will be = 35,000-11,270 = 23,730 euro 8. If market traders learn that the dollar interest rate will soon fall, they also revise upward their expectation
of the dollar’s future depreciation in the foreign exchange market. Given the current exchange rate
eand interest rates, there is thus a rise in the expected dollar return on euro deposits from REU,1 to eREU,2. At the current exchange rate of E1, the dollar return on a European asset exceeds the dollar return on a U.S. asset. As investors shift their money into European assets, the dollar will depreciate against the euro. This will drive down the dollar return on European assets until interest rate parity is restored at the new exchange rate E2. 9. The analysis will be parallel to that in the text. As shown in the accompanying diagrams, a movement
down the vertical axis in the new graph, however, is interpreted as a euro appreciation and dollar depreciation rather than the reverse. Also, the horizontal axis now measures the euro interest rate.
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克鲁格曼 国际经济学第10版 英文答案 国际金融部分krugman_intlecon10_im_14_GE
