2024年新冠疫苗专题研究：依5大技术路线开展70项目、
新冠疫苗的时间线、技术线分析
目 录
1.疫苗是战胜疫情的终极武器 .................................................................................................................................................................. 4
1.1 新冠病毒传播力强，多国强力隔离防控 .................................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 隔离防疫措施对经济生活冲击极大，不具备可持续性 ............................................................................................................ 4 1.3 疫苗是战胜疫情的终极武器 ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.依5大技术路线开展70项目................................................................................................................................................................ 6 3.时间线：乐观估计今年秋季有条件批准，明年春季正式批准 ........................................................................................................10
3.1 进入临床时间 ..............................................................................................................................................................................13 3.2 上市时间 ......................................................................................................................................................................................14 3.3 量产时间 ......................................................................................................................................................................................15 3.4 量产后的接种优先顺序 ..............................................................................................................................................................17 3.5 时间线总结 ..................................................................................................................................................................................17 4.技术线：新兴技术有望最早带来曙光 ................................................................................................................................................19
4.1 5大技术路线概述 ........................................................................................................................................................................19 4.2 mRNA疫苗...................................................................................................................................................................................21
4.2.1 技术原理 ...........................................................................................................................................................................21 4.2.2 研发进展 ...........................................................................................................................................................................21 4.2.3 临床试验设计 ...................................................................................................................................................................22 4.2.4 mRNA技术路线评价 .......................................................................................................................................................22 4.3 腺病毒载体疫苗 ..........................................................................................................................................................................23
4.3.1 技术原理 ...........................................................................................................................................................................23 4.3.2 研发进展 ...........................................................................................................................................................................23 4.3.3 临床试验设计 ...................................................................................................................................................................23 4.3.4 康希诺埃博拉腺病毒载体疫苗获批过程 .......................................................................................................................25 4.3.5 腺病毒载体技术路线评价 ...............................................................................................................................................26 4.4 流感病毒载体疫苗 ......................................................................................................................................................................26
4.4.1 技术原理 ...........................................................................................................................................................................26 4.4.2 研发进展 ...........................................................................................................................................................................27 4.4.3 流感病毒载体技术路线评价 ...........................................................................................................................................27 4.5 技术线总结 ..................................................................................................................................................................................27 5.总结.........................................................................................................................................................................................................28 6.投资建议及相关标的 ............................................................................................................................................................................28 7.风险提示.................................................................................................................................................................................................28
插图目录
图1：全球新冠累计确诊和新增确诊病例数 ............................................................................................................................................ 4 图2：中国铁路日客运量（万人次）同比大幅下降 ................................................................................................................................ 5 图3：中国民航日客运量（万人次）同比大幅下降 ................................................................................................................................ 5
图4： 3月全球民航日航班数同比减少40% .......................................................................................................................................... 5 图5：中国制造业PMI大幅下降 ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 图6：摩根大通全球制造业PMI下降 ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 图7：全球麻疹、百日咳疫苗接种成效显著 ............................................................................................................................................ 6 图8：疫苗研发上市流程...........................................................................................................................................................................13 图9：各研发项目（预期）进入临床时间 ..............................................................................................................................................13 图10：全球季节性流感疫苗产能 ............................................................................................................................................................16 图11：各类疫苗诱导免疫应答的原理.....................................................................................................................................................19 图12：mRNA-1273作用原理 .................................................................................................................................................................21 图13：mRNA-1273临床I期试验设计..................................................................................................................................................22 图14：病毒载体疫苗作用原理 ................................................................................................................................................................23 图15：康希诺腺病毒载体疫苗临床I期试验设计 .................................................................................................................................23 图16：康希诺腺病毒载体疫苗临床II期试验设计 ................................................................................................................................24 图17：牛津大学腺病毒载体疫苗临床I/II期试验设计..........................................................................................................................25 图18：康希诺埃博拉腺病毒载体疫苗获批过程 ....................................................................................................................................25
表格目录
表1: 全球新冠疫苗研发进展 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 表2: 疫苗研发历时可达十年或数十年 ...................................................................................................................................................10 表3: 疫苗各期临床试验目标和观察指标 ............................................................................................................................................... 11 表4: 新冠疫苗IIb/III期临床试验终点 ....................................................................................................................................................15 表5: 各传染性疾病群体免疫阈值测算 ...................................................................................................................................................15 表6: 新冠优先接种人口数测算 ...............................................................................................................................................................17 表7: 生物制品临床试验成功率 ...............................................................................................................................................................18 表8: 三种冠状病毒疫苗研发情况 ...........................................................................................................................................................18 表9: 各技术路线疫苗优点比较 ...............................................................................................................................................................20
2024年新冠疫苗专题研究：依5大技术路线开展70项目、新冠疫苗的时间线、技术线分析
