A Comparison Study of the Methods of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Singu

A Comparison Study of the Methods of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Singular

Vectors in Ensemble Prediction

JIANG Zhina;MU Mu

【期刊名称】《大气科学进展（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2009(026)003

【摘要】The authors apply the technique of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) as a means of providing initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting by using a barotropic quasi-gcostrophic (QG) model in a perfect-model scenario. Ensemble forecasts for the medium range (14 days) are made from the initial states perturbed by CNOPs and singular vectors (SVs). 13 different cases have been chosen when analysis error is a kind of fast growing error. Our experiments show that the introduction of CNOP provides better forecast skill than the SV method. Moreover, the spread-skill relationship reveals that the ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP appear supcrior to those obtained by SVs from day 6 to day 14. Rank diagrams are adopted to compare the new method with the SV approach. The results illustrate that the introduction of CNOP has higher reliability for medium-range ensemble forecasts. 【总页数】6页(465-470) 【关键词】

【作者】JIANG Zhina;MU Mu

【作者单位】State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather ( LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ( LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ( LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 【正文语种】中文 【中图分类】P4 【文献来源】

https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/academic-journal-cn_advances-atmospheric-sciences_thesis/0201253029510.html 【相关文献】

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