Asia, Africa, and the Middle East
Imports from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are unchanged from the previous forecast.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, fiscal years 2019-20ForecastRegion and countryVALUE---Billion dollars---Western Hemisphere Canada Mexico Central America Costa Rica Guatemala Other Central America Caribbean South America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Other South AmericaEurope and Eurasia European Union-27+UK 1/ Other EuropeAsia East Asia China Other East Asia Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Other Southeast Asia South Asia IndiaOceania Australia New ZealandAfrica Sub-Sahara Ivory CoastMiddle East Turkey36.325 11.365 14.340 2.507 0.679 1.054 0.774 0.326 7.787 0.698 1.740 1.590 1.457 1.419 0.883 12.598 11.828 0.770 10.856 3.152 2.168 0.984 6.191 1.522 0.478 1.358 0.955 1.878 1.513 1.329 2.733 1.620 1.048 1.640 1.382 0.416 0.841 0.569 38.110 11.896 15.324 2.734 0.725 1.103 0.906 0.317 7.839 0.716 1.649 1.517 1.398 1.650 0.909 12.607 11.783 0.824 10.419 2.703 1.654 1.049 6.281 1.590 0.493 1.428 0.955 1.815 1.435 1.261 2.989 1.782 1.150 1.602 1.328 0.490 0.767 0.493 71.79623.41227.8995.4311.5152.1311.7850.66214.3931.3573.3272.8742.7042.4391.69126.55024.6951.85522.0886.0534.0721.98212.9942.9801.0312.8272.0314.1253.0402.6825.9023.4252.3683.1242.6380.7521.4840.97572.523.228.35.61.62.21.80.714.71.43.43.02.72.51.726.724.91.822.76.24.41.813.53.31.02.82.44.03.02.76.03.42.63.02.70.91.61.070.422.927.05.41.52.11.80.714.41.43.32.92.72.41.726.224.41.822.76.24.41.813.53.31.02.82.44.03.02.76.33.72.63.02.70.91.61.0October - MarchFY2019FY2020Fiscal year2019Fiscal year 2020Feb.MayWorld total65.13366.638130.943132.5130.2Totals may not add due to rounding.1/ 28 member nations of the European Union (EU) including the United Kingdom (UK), which will remain in theEU Customs Union during the transition period that is scheduled to end December 31, 2020, but may be extended.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service analysis and forecasts using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Reliability Tables
Table 7--Reliability of quarterly U.S. export projections, by commodity and quarterAverage absolute forecast errorsFiscal 2019CommodityExport valueGrains and feeds Wheat Rice Coarse grains Corn Feeds and foddersOilseeds and products Soybeans Soybean meal Soybean oilLivestock, poultry, and dairy Livestock products Beef and veal Pork Beef and pork variety meats Hides, skins, and furs Poultry and products Broiler meat Dairy productsTobacco, unmanufacturedCottonPlanting seedsHorticultural products Fruits and vegetables, fresh Fruits and veget., processed Tree nutsSugar and tropical productsMajor bulk productsTotal agricultural exportsRoot mean square errorExport volumeWheatRiceCoarse grainsCornFeeds and foddersSoybeansSoybean mealSoybean oilBeef and vealPorkBeef and pork variety meatsBroiler meatTobacco, unmanufacturedCottonMajor bulk productsRoot mean square errorAug.Nov.Feb.Percent15208303118931811624834533351551132414MayAug.Aug.Forecast accuracyFiscal 2019Nov.Feb.MayForecastAug.accuracy 1/Percent20404020201004040100010010080608001001008004001001001001001000806013143272511724118003844434133145155114171715208313118101180146435117333515511334155171416120281224612421336515511201921322124071131115221665001111415--X--X--X-XXX-X-XXX---XXXXX--52%\-----X---------XXX--X--XXXX---XXXXXXX-X-XXXX----XXXXXX-XX---XX----XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX---XXX52Ub%XXXXXXXXX-XXXXX-XXX---XXXXX-X79Q23202172149241912162615626262721492419141527126262626214924291414262617182021442919176251334230220314703XX--X-X--XXX-X-53%----X-X--XXX-X-40%----X-X--XXX-X-40%X---XXX-XX-X---47%XXXXXXXXXXXXX-X93`40202010040100204010080100206020551/ Percent of forecasts with errors less than or equal to 5 percent, as denoted by an X.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.18
Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 8--Reliability of quarterly U.S. export projections, by country and quarterAverage absolute forecast errorsFiscal 2019Country/regionExport valueAsia East Asia Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan South Korea Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Vietnam South Asia IndiaWestern Hemisphere North America Canada Mexico Caribbean Dominican Republic Central America South America Brazil Colombia Peru VenezuelaEurope and Eurasia European Union-27+UK 2/ Other Europe FSU-12 3/ RussiaMiddle East Turkey Saudi ArabiaAfrica North Africa Egypt Sub-Saharan Africa NigeriaOceaniaRoot mean square errorAug.Nov.Feb.Percent634113158112141327171051334209431226736622188427632695689222MayAug.Aug.Forecast accuracyFiscal 2019Nov.Feb.MayForecastAug.accuracy 1/PercentXXX-X-XXXX-XXX-XXXXXX-XXX----XX-X-----XX61@60100020206020201000202040010010010010010060080100200000204001000000020010038109219313112214133817105133457943122673662218842763269568922363411315512214133817105133457943122673662218842763269568922326436858714413111751613342095312261576222374276235156892184442825510413133160112209135715665237218610221539211--X--XX--X-----XXXXX--XX--------X-------X32%\--XXX-XXX---------X--------XXX-----------X---XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX-XX---XX-XXX--------------------X---XXX----------------------XXX3224%1/ Percent of forecasts with errors less than or equal to 5 percent, as denoted by an X.2/ 28 member nations of the European Union including the United Kingdom (UK), which will remain in the European Union Customs Union during the transition period that is scheduled to end December 31, 2020, but may be extended.3/ The 15 Republics of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) minus the 3 Baltic Republics.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 9--Reliability of quarterly U.S. import projections, by commodity and quarterAverage absolute forecast errorsFiscal 2019CommodityImport valueLivestock, poultry, and dairy Livestock and meats Cattle and calves Swine Beef and veal Pork Dairy products CheeseGrains and feed Grain productsOilseeds and products Vegetable oilsHorticulture products Fruits, fresh Fruits, preserved Fruit juices Nuts and preparations Vegetables, fresh Vegetables, processed Wine Malt beer Essential oils Cut flowers and nursery stockSugar and tropical products Sweeteners and products Confections Cocoa and products Coffee beans and products Natural rubberOther importsTotal agricultural importsRoot mean square errorImport volumeWine Malt beer Fruit juices Cattle and calvesSwineBeef and vealPorkFruits--freshFruits--processedVegetables--freshVegetables--processedVegetable oilsCocoa and productsCoffee beans and productsRoot mean square errorAug.Nov.Feb.Percent43347984469155210116112082812512326MayAug.Aug.Forecast accuracyFiscal 2019Nov.Feb.MayForecastAug.accuracy 1/Percent10010060100606020806020200606010010004010010010010001002080100200100100633194291147911217544871002826607123374494738479101966308710208381071233732343381146714311011511208161256325003423341426211011511208011016314XX-XX--X------XX--XXXX-X--X--XX48%\XXXXXX-XXXXX--XX-X---XX--XX----------XX-XXXXXXXX-----XXXXXXXXXXXXX---XXX---XXXXXX------XXXXXX52ah%XXXXXXXXXXX-XXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX-XX87c6262191521166169608242191021126168608222191021126168608242510021061662063025000226104-X-X-X-X-XX---43%-X-XXX-XXXX---57%-X-XXX-XXXX---57%-X-XXX-XXXX---57%XX-XXX-XXXXX--71 1000100801000100801001002000571/ Percent of forecasts with errors less than or equal to 5 percent, as denoted by an X.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
美国农业贸易展望2020年05月
