Progress in Transition
By Zhang Hong
【期刊名称】北京周报（英文版） 【年(卷),期】2016(000)009 【总页数】2 【
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https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/academic-journal-cn_beijing-
review_thesis/0201210904421.html
Ukraine tries to restore order after crisis
Two years have elapsed since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis during which unremitting conflicts brought the European country close to disaster. But looking back on 2015, Ukraine was not as out of control as some people had asserted. Despite numerous difficulties, it achieved relative political stability, avoided economic meltdown, as well as maintained a truce in the eastern part of the country.
Political reform
After Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from the presidency in February 2014, the political situation in Ukraine appeared to be in a state of disorder, but it began to change in 2015. President Petro Poroshenko and the Ukrainian Government controlled events and managed to combat the intervention in politics by powerful oligarchs, a long-term malady since Ukraine gained its independence after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991.
In 2015, pressed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU, the Ukrainian Government took actions to break oligarchs’ control of the economy, but the efforts met strong opposition. In March 2015, the private militia of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky occupied offices of two state-owned energy companies in Kiev after the parliament moved to retake control of the companies from him. But in response to pressure from the public and Western countries, Kolomoisky resigned from the governorship of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast following a weeklong confrontation. Soon after the incident was resolved, the government scrapped many preferential tax policies for businesses controlled by oligarchs.
With the central government viewed as weak in the political crisis after February 2014, ultra-nationalist organizations began to grow in Ukraine. Some ultra-nationalist parties won seats in the national legislature in the October 2014 parliamentary election, exerting greater influence in politics and hampering President Poroshenko and the government’s attempts at political reconciliation.
But in 2015, the influence of these parties started to decline. In local elections in October 2015, moderate center-right parties gained large support as more and more voters began to realize that a rational and peaceful resolution of the conflict in east Ukraine is the best choice, and increased autonomy for the region can serve as a basis for the final
political reconciliation.
In the meantime, Ukraine has appointed foreign citizens to some high-ranking government posts and promoted many young officials with a Western educational background as a means to magnify the effect of its political reform.
Economic recovery
Due to the gloomy global economic situation, particularly the sharp fall in international commodity prices, Ukraine’s GDP shrank by 10 percent in 2015. But timely international loans and EU aid, which came as a result of the Ukrainian Government’s rigid implementation of the financial and energy policies set by the IMF and World Bank, helped the country escape from economic collapse and achieve a small balance of payments surplus, despite severe domestic inflation and a decline in international trade. Ukraine also reached agreements with its main creditors to restructure the country’s huge foreign debt last year, thus avoiding a sovereign debt bankruptcy.
Ukraine’s economy relies heavily on the export of metallurgy, chemical and agricultural products. Looking to the future, its exports are unlikely to continue nose-diving. After the validation of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area on January 1, the EU will remove tariffs and other barriers on imports from the country, which will facilitate Ukraine’s economic recovery. Another piece of good news for
Progress in Transition
