2019房地产行业万科恒大碧桂园对标分析报告

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2019年房地产行业万科恒大 碧桂园对标分析报告

优质参考文档

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目录

一、历史沿革............................................................................................1

1、万科：城市综合配套服务商............................................................................1 2、恒大集团：多元+规模+品牌............................................................................1 3、碧桂园：新型城镇化进程的身体力行者........................................................2

二、销售篇................................................................................................3

1、销售成长性比较................................................................................................4

（1）销售规模.....................................................................................................................4 （2）销售均价.....................................................................................................................4

2、销售区域结构比较..........................................................................................5

（1）万科：区域优化和深耕...........................................................................................6 （2）恒大：20PP年起向一二线城市转移.....................................................................7 （3）碧桂园：市场层面挖掘一二线城市潜力...............................................................8

3、销售产能比较..................................................................................................9

（1）城市产能比较：深耕与纵深...................................................................................9 （2）单盘产能比较：开发规模的差异...........................................................................10 （3）可售资源比较：货值与推盘能力...........................................................................10

三、布局篇..............................................................................................12

1、扩张节奏比较..................................................................................................12

（1）拿地规模...................................................................................................................12 （2）拿地成本...................................................................................................................14 （3）扩张节奏感...............................................................................................................15

2、单盘规模比较..................................................................................................16 3、扩张模式的特点..............................................................................................17

（1）万科：聚焦核心城市，加码“轨道+物业”模式.....................................................17 （2）恒大：转型核心城市，加码旧改市场...................................................................21 （3）碧桂园：城市化进程的力行者...............................................................................23

4、海外布局情况..................................................................................................24

四、业绩篇..............................................................................................27

1、结算业绩比较..................................................................................................27

（1）结算规模...................................................................................................................27 （2）结算均价...................................................................................................................28

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2、盈利质量比较..................................................................................................29

（1）综合毛利率...............................................................................................................29 （2）命题一：一二线VS三四线...................................................................................31 （3）命题二：大盘开发VS中小盘开发.......................................................................32 （4）命题三：建安成本背后议价能力的博弈...............................................................33

3、净利润比较......................................................................................................34

（1）永续债隐藏的利润...................................................................................................35

4、业绩确定性比较..............................................................................................37

五、效率篇..............................................................................................381、

管控费用率比较..............................................................................................38

（1）成本控制...................................................................................................................38 （2）投入产出...................................................................................................................39

2、激励机制的差异..............................................................................................41 3、周转效率比较..................................................................................................42

六、杠杆篇..............................................................................................44

1、负债率比较......................................................................................................44 2、融资结构与融资成本差异..............................................................................48 3、龙头房企的其他负债......................................................................................51

（1）经营性杠杆...............................................................................................................51 （2）永续债券...................................................................................................................52

4、永续债利弊之辩..............................................................................................54

七、总结：一切的成功都不是偶然......................................................55

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