Prediction Method for Regional Logistics

Prediction Method for Regional Logistics

QIU Ying;LU Huapu;WANG Haiwei

【期刊名称】《清华大学学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2008(013)005

【摘要】Currently applied prediction methods of regional freight traffic and freight ton-kilometer forecasting were analyzed using typical Chinese regional goods transportation characteristics.The review of prediction methods showes that practical planning experts tend to apply the traditional methods which are easier to implement.The comparison also demonstrates that a combination of traditional methods is more effective than the simple models for practical planning.Research using the statistical data for the Yangtze Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Bohai Rim areas shows that ignoring differences between transport modes impacts the prediction accuracy.The four main transport modes suit different methods.The results show that the power model is better for railways,and the linear model is better for highways and waterways.Thus a combined model gives better results for all modes.The results for regional systems can be generalized to national transportation systems. 【总页数】9页(660-668)

【关键词】regional logistics;prediction method;applied condition 【作者】QIU Ying;LU Huapu;WANG Haiwei