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E
2024 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet
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Ecosystems provide many natural processes to maintain a healthy and sustainable environment after human life. However, over the past decades, rapid industrial development and other anthropogenic activities have been limiting or removing ecosystem services. It is necessary to access the impact of human activities on biodiversity and environmental degradation.
The main purpose of this work is to understand the true economic costs of land use projects when ecosystem services are considered. To this end, we propose an ecological service assessment model to perform a cost benefit analysis of land use development projects of varying sites, from small-scale community projects to large national projects. We mainly focus on the treatment cost of environmental pollution in land use from three aspects: air pollution, solid waste and water pollution. We collect pollution data nationwide from 2010 to 2015 to estimate economic costs. We visually analyze the change in economic costs over time via some charts. We also analyze how the economic cost changes with time by using linear regression method. We divide the data into small community projects data (living pollution data) and large natural data (industrial pollution data). Our results indicate that the economic costs of restoring economical services for different scales of land use are different. For small-scale land, according to our analysis, the treatment cost of living pollution is about 30 million every year in China. With the rapid development of technology, the cost is lower than past years. For large-scale land, according to our analysis, the treatment cost of industrial pollution is about 8 million, which is lower than cost of living pollution. Meanwhile the cost is trending down due to technology development. The theory developed here provides a sound foundation for effective decision making policies on land use projects.
Key words: economic cost , ecosystem service, ecological service assesment model, pollution.
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Content
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3 2. Variable Description ........................................................................................... 3
2.1 Definitions ............................................................................................. 3 3. Model Definitions and Results ........................................................................... 4
3.1 2010-2015 Air Pollution Virtual Governance Cost ................................ 4 3.2 2010-2015 Solid Waste Virtual Governance Cost ................................. 8 3.3 2010-2015 Water Pollution Virtual Governance Cost ........................ 11 3.4 Total Governance Data Analysis .......................................................... 14 3.5 Model Analysis Over Time .................................................................. 15 4. Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 16
4.1 Strengths ............................................................................................. 17 4.2 Weakness ............................................................................................ 17 4.3 Model Improvement ........................................................................... 17 5. References ........................................................................................................ 18
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1. Introduction
Today, with the rapid development of social industrialization and modernization, one thing we must admit is that in the process of industrialization in different regions, countries and even the whole world, we are trying to maximize the economic benefits of limited development space, but at the same time, the impact of decision-making on the biosphere is also ignored.
It is well known that the biosphere provides many natural processes to maintain healthy and sustainable human living environments, which are called ecosystem services. It not only provides food, medicine and raw materials for industrial and agricultural production, but also maintains the life support system that human beings rely on for survival and development. At present, the internationally recognized ecosystem service function classification system is a classification method proposed by MA working group. MA's ecosystem service classification system divides the main service function types into four function groups: product, rule, culture and support. Thus, the ecosystem service function is the foundation of human civilization and sustainable development.
But as we use and update our environment, we may limit or eliminate ecosystem services. Although these activities seem insignificant, they do affect the ecosystem to some extent.
Therefore, we introduce the virtual cost management method, which aims to evaluate the cost of environmental degradation by calculating the cost of pollution control. This allows for a comprehensive assessment of projects under construction, thus ensuring the resilience and sustainability of ecosystem services while utilizing land resources.
To ensure the integrity and the sustainable development of ecological system is the premise and foundation of development, If we simply pursue the speed of development and neglect the pressure that construction activities bring to the ecosystem, will inevitably produce the bad consequences, we must protect our earth, because it is not only our planet, but also the planet of our descendants.
2. Variable Description
2.1 Definitions
To measure the cost of environmental degradation, we introduced the following variables:
Virtual governance costs: The environmental degradation value calculated by the pollution loss method is called the environmental degradation cost, which refers to the various damages caused by the pollutants discharged in the production and consumption process to the environmental function, human health and crop yield under the current governance level.
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Environmental loss method: In the SEEA framework, pollution loss method refers to the environmental value assessment method based on damage. This method uses certain technical means and pollution loss investigation to calculate all kinds of damages caused by environmental pollution.
Biodiversity: Refers to the variety of life in an ecosystem; all of the living organisms within a given area.
Biosphere: The part of the Earth that is occupied by living organisms and generally includes the interaction between these organisms and their physical environment.
Ecosystem: A subset of the biosphere that primarily focuses on the interaction between living things and their physical environment.
Ecosystem Services: The many benefits and assets that humans receive freely from our natural environment and a fully functioning ecosystem.
Environmental Degradation: The deterioration or compromise of the natural environment through consumption of assets either by natural processes or human activities.
Mitigate: To make less severe, painful, or impactful.
Valuation: Refers to the estimating or determining the current worth of something.
3. Model Definitions and Results
3.1 2010-2015 Air Pollution Virtual Governance Cost
The natural gas use proportion c1,c2 and c3 are collectively recorded as c, the gas use amount d1,d2 and d3are collectively recorded as d, and the natural gas operation cost f1,f2 and f3 are collectively recorded as f.
In the modeling process, it is assumed that the garbage disposal cost, gas operation cost and central heating operation cost will not change in the next few years.
Table 1 Introduction of air pollution variables Introduction of air pollution variables SO2 emissions a Dust emissions b Unit SO2 governance cost a1 Unit dust governance cost b1 SO2 virtual removal rate a2 Dust virtual removal rate b2 Urban population p Urban gasification rate q Artificial gas use ratio c1
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natural gas use ratio c2 Liquefied petroleum gas use ratio c3 Per capita artificial gas usage d1 Per capita natural gas usage d2 Per capita Liquefied petroleum gas usage d3 Artificial gas operating costs f1 natural gas operating costs f2 Liquefied petroleum gas operating costs f3 Actual residential area at the end of the year s1 Central heating area s2 Central heating operation costs e Urbanization is often accompanied by land development and utilization. Urban construction is inseparable from industrial construction and improvement of human living environment. In this process, the continuous development and utilization of land, or the construction of large factories, or the increase of communities and parks, has a certain impact on the local ecology. Factory waste emissions and gas consumption to a certain extent polluted the air, causing irreversible damage to the ecological environment.
The impact of land development and utilization on the atmosphere is manifold. In large national projects such as industrial projects, we focus on the costs of sulphur dioxide emissions and dust emissions. In small-scale community projects such as community life, we mainly study the governance cost from the perspective of gas use, and establish an ecological service evaluation model related to air pollution.
When considering the function of ecological services, we first study the economic cost of land development and utilization from the perspective of large-scale land development and utilization. Large-scale land development generally includes the establishment and relocation of large companies, the laying of pipelines nationwide, and the establishment of large state-owned enterprises. The construction of large chemical plants in land development produces polluting gases during the development process or after the plant is put into use. Among them, sulfur dioxide and dust emissions accounted for a large proportion. Let's use these two types of pollution as an example to calculate the economic cost.
Collecting China's SO2 and dust emissions from 2010 to 2015:
Table 2 Industrial exhaust emissions Industrial exhaust emissions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SO2 emissions/tons 1,864.40 2,217.91 2,117.63 2,043.92 1,974.42 Dust emissions/tons 603.20 1,278.83 1,235.77 1,278.14 1,740.75
2024数学建模美赛论文
