The?Hidden?Costs?of?War
by??William?D.?Hartung
Support?for?this?report?has?been?generously?donated?by
Howard?S.?Brembeck,founder?and?chairman,the?Fourth?Freedom?Forum
Contents
Executive?Summary
War?without?End??The?Costs?of?the?New?Military?BuildupThe?Hidden?Costs?of?War:?A?Historical?PerspectiveRolling?the?Dice?on?Gulf?War?II:?Real?Money,?Real?Risks
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Tables
Table?I:?U.S.?Military?Spending,?Actual?and?Projected,Fiscal?Year?2001?to?Fiscal?Year?2010Table?II:?U.S.?Military?Spending?Versus?Actualor?Potential?Adversaries,?2001
Table?III:?Budgetary?Costs?to?the?United?Statesof?Major?Wars,?1941?to?1991
Table?IV:?American?Casualties?from?Major?Wars1941?to?1991
Table?V:?Estimated?Costs?to?the?United?Statesof?a?War?with?Iraq
Table?VI:?Federal?Discretionary?Spending?by?Agency,Fiscal?Year?2004
Table?VII:?Military?Spending?and?the?Costs?of?Warwith?Iraq?Compared?with?Alternative?Expenditures
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Executive Summary
War Without End? The Costs of the New Military Buildup
The Bush administration’s war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraqhave sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades.
? Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion inincreased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slatedto reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billionannually by the end of this decade.? These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a warwith Iraq. ? Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates thatonly 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside foranti-terror activities and homeland security.
The greatest potential driver of military and security costs in the coming decade is theopen-ended nature of the Bush administration’s national security strategy. The administration hasmoved rapidly from a focus on acting against “terror networks of global reach,” to a commitmentto displace regional tyrants like Saddam Hussein, to a pledge to use American military might topromote “democracy and free markets” worldwide.The Hidden Costs of War: A Historical Perspective
As Robert Hormats of Goldman Sachs International has observed, “History is litteredwith gross underestimates of the cost of war . . . The first world war was originally forecast to beshort and inexpensive. The Vietnam War cost 90 percent more than forecast.”
Yale economist William D. Nordhaus has suggested that governments often understatethe costs of conflict because “If wars are thought to be short, cheap, and bloodless . . . it is easierto persuade the populace and the Congress to defer to the President.”
Hidden costs also arise, especially in the postwar era. For example, the 1991 Gulf conflicthad an unprecedented rate of “postwar casualties.” More than one-quarter of the veterans of thatwar are receiving benefits to deal with service-related medical problems ranging from memorylapses and fatigue to cancer and birth defects in their children. The costs of treating Gulf War-related injuries and illnesses is $2 billion per year.
The Hidden Costs of War
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Thehiddencostsofwar战争的间接成本
