Short-term solar flare prediction using multi-model
integration method
Jin-Fu Liu;Fei Li;Jie Wan;Da-Ren Yu
【期刊名称】《天文和天体物理学研究》 【年(卷),期】2017(017)004
【摘要】A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction.Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors from a pool of observation databases.The outputs of the base models are normalized first because these established models extract predictors from many data resources using different prediction methods.Then weighted integration of the base models is used to develop a multi-model integrated model (MIM).The weight set that single models assign is optimized by a genetic algorithm.Seven base
models
and
data
from
Solar
and
Heliospheric
Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms are used to construct the MIM,and then its performance is evaluated by cross validation.Experimental results showed that the MIM outperforms any individual model in nearly every data group,and the richer the diversity of the base models,the better the performance of the MIM.Thus,integrating more diversified models,such as an expert system,a statistical model and a physical model,will greatly improve the
performance of the MIM. 【总页数】12页(23-34) 【关键词】
【作者】Jin-Fu Liu;Fei Li;Jie Wan;Da-Ren Yu
【作者单位】School of Energy Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China;School of Energy Science and Engineering,
Harbin
Institute
of
Technology,
Harbin
150001,
China;School of Energy Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China;School of Energy Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China 【正文语种】英文 【中图分类】 【文献来源】
https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/academic-journal-cn_research-astronomy-astrophysics_thesis/0201254254607.html 【相关文献】
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3.Structure of the Program of Short-term Prediction of Powerful Solar
Flares [J], V. Maksimov; D. Prosovetsky
4.Short-term solar flare prediction using image-case-based reasoning [J], Jin-Fu Liu; Fei Li; Huai-Peng Zhang; Da-Ren Yu
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Short-term solar flare prediction using multi-model integration method
