abstract
半干旱地区水文气候要素变化趋势及特征
——以滦河流域为例
摘要：海河流域位于我国的心脏地区，是我国政治、经济、文化的中心，具有非常重要的战略地位。滦河流域是海河流域的子流域，其地位也是非常重要的，因此，对其气候要素（如降水、温度、蒸发、径流等）变化趋势分析非常重要，可以对未来的气候变化、径流影响及水资源总量做出一个预测。本文对气候要素变化趋势分析采用了线性回归分析、5年滑动平均分析、距平分析、MK法趋势检验等。为了确定个气候要素的关系及对滦河流域进行径流模拟，本文采用了WBM模型进行分析。尽管WBM模型对半干旱地区的模拟效果不如湿润地区，但总体来说，对天然时段的模拟结果还是可以接受的。最后本文对滦河未来的气候要素以及水资源量做了预测，得出的结果是不容乐观，水资源量逐年显著减少，值得我们引起重视。
关键词：气候要素变化趋势、WBM模型、径流模拟、水资源总量
abstract
Abstract
Variation Trend and Characteristics of Hydro-Meteorological Elements for Semi-Arid Area---------- Taking the Luanhe River Basin as Example
Abstract: Haihe River Basin locates in the heart area of China which is also the center of politics, economy and culture. Luanhe River Basin is a sub-basin of Haihe River basin, plays an important role with sustainable utilization supporting economic development. It is essential to understanding variation trends of hydro-meteorological elements including precipitation, temperature, evaporation as well as runoff for projecting water availability in this catchment . In this paper, linear regression analysis, 5-year moving average analysis, anomaly and Mann-Kendall method were used to analyze variation laws of hydro-meteorological elements. In adition, a Water Balance Model was applied to study responses of hydrology to climate change. Generally speaking, the model performed well for monthly discharge simulation prior to intensive human disturbance while poor simulation for human-disturbed period. Finally, the model was used to project the possible water resources scenario under the GCM projection. The results indicate that globel warming will result in decrease in runoff, which will bring much challenge to the current water resources management. Key words: varation of hydro-meteorological elements, WBM model, runoff simulation，totals of water resources
目录
目 录
第一章 绪论 ..................................................................................................................................... 2
1.1 研究目的意义 .................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 研究流域概况 .................................................................................................................... 2
1.2.1 海河自然地理情况： ............................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 滦河概况： ............................................................................................................. 4 1.2.3 滦河水文气象资料情况 ......................................................................................... 5 1.3 主要研究内容与技术路线 ................................................................................................ 7
1.3.1主要研究内容 .......................................................................................................... 7 1.3.2技术路线 .................................................................................................................. 7
第二章 流域气象水文要素变化趋势 ............................................................................................. 8
2.1 水文序列趋势诊断方法 .................................................................................................... 8
2.1.1线性回归 .................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.2多年（5年）滑动平均 ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 M-K法 ..................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 降水变化 ....................................................................................................................... 9
2.2.1 年际变化 ................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.2 年内分配 ......................................................................................................... 11 2.2.3 变化趋势显著性诊断 ..................................................................................... 14 2.3 气温变化 .......................................................................................................................... 16
2.3.1 气温年际变化 ....................................................................................................... 16 2.3.2 年内气温变化 ....................................................................................................... 17 2.4径流变化 ........................................................................................................................... 18
2.4.1 年际变化 ............................................................................................................... 18 2.4.2年内分配 ................................................................................................................ 20 2.4.3 变化趋势显著性诊断 ........................................................................................... 23 2.5 本章小结 ..................................................................................................................... 24 第三章 流域水文模型及其径流过程模拟 ................................................................................... 26
3.1 降水径流关系 .................................................................................................................. 26 3.2 流域水文模型 .................................................................................................................. 28 3.3参数率定方法与目标函数 ............................................................................................... 29
3.3.1参数率定方法 ........................................................................................................ 29 3.3.2 目标函数 ............................................................................................................... 31 3.4流量过程模拟 ................................................................................................................... 32 3.5 本章小结 ..................................................................................................................... 34 第四章 气候变化对流域径流的影响 ........................................................................................... 35
4.1 未来气候变化情景 .......................................................................................................... 35 4.2 径流对气候变化的敏感性 .............................................................................................. 37
4.2.1 降水量温度对径流敏感性分析 ........................................................................... 37 4.2.2 温度蒸发对径流敏感性分析 ............................................................................... 38 4.3 未来流域水资源变化趋势 .............................................................................................. 38 4.4 本章小结 .......................................................................................................................... 40
半干旱地区水文气候要素变化趋势及特征
