An approach to prediction of the South China Sea
summer monsoon onset
HU Dunxin;YU Lejiang
【期刊名称】《中国海洋湖沼学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2008(026)004
【摘要】In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm poor in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1°×1°) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3°N/138°E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooting to the center is at 2°N/137°E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2°N/137°E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat
An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset
