厦门市居民白血病死亡与减寿趋势预测
林艺兰;陈敏;张琼花;池家煌
【期刊名称】《中国医院统计》 【年(卷),期】2016(023)003
【摘要】Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xia-men, so as to provide the basis data on preventing leukemia cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of leukemia cancer from 2010 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost (AYLL), and the average percentage change (APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2010 to 2014, the average mortality rate of leukemia cancer in res-idents in Xiamen was 3. 45 per 100,000 persons and the rate for male was 1. 51 times of that for female. The AYLL, which was 24. 63 years, had a decline trend from 2010 to 2014. All mortality rates and AYLLs could fit out the GM(1,1) model except the mortality rate in female. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 0. 54%-6. 97%. The mortality rate and AYLL of leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2017. Conclusion GM(1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xia-men. Leukemia cancer is still
an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City. We should not relax the prevention and control of leukemia.%目的：探讨厦门市居民白血病死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市白血病综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2010—2014年厦门市居民白血病死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数( AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果2010—2014年,厦门市居民白血病死亡率3.45/10万,男性死亡率是女性的1.51倍；AYLL为24.63年,存在下降趋势。除女性死亡率外,其余男性死亡率、合计死亡率及所有AYLL均能拟合出GM(1,1)模型,预测值与实际值平均相对误差0.54%~6.97%,预测2015—2017年白血病死亡率和AYLL值均略有下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民白血病死亡率和减寿趋势预测,白血病仍是造成厦门市居民早死的重要原因,不能放松白血病的预防控制工作。 【总页数】4页(161-164)
【关键词】白血病;死亡率;潜在寿命损失;预测;GM(1,1)模型 【作者】林艺兰;陈敏;张琼花;池家煌
【作者单位】361021 厦门市疾病预防控制中心;361021 厦门市疾病预防控制中心;厦门市集美区疾病预防控制中心;361021 厦门市疾病预防控制中心 【正文语种】中文 【中图分类】 【文献来源】
https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/academic-journal-cn_chinese-journal-hospital-statistics_thesis/0201215284359.html
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厦门市居民白血病死亡与减寿趋势预测
