Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario

Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario

HUANG Dapeng;ZHANG Lei;GAO Ge;SUN Shao

【期刊名称】《地理学报（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2024(028)010

【摘要】Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat.Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature (HT) and extremely high temperature (EHT) in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃,respectively.Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future (i.e.,2024-2040,2041-2060,2060-2081 and 2081-2100) were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2r socio-economic scenario.The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions.Results show that,compared with population exposure seen during 1981-2010,the base period,exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3,2.0,3.6,and 5.9 times,respectively,over the four periods,while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0,8.3,24.2,and