ALUMINUM CONTENT IN NORTH AMERICAN LIGHT VEHICLES 2016 TO 2028Summary ReportJuly 2017TABLE OF CONTENTSIntroduction and MethodologyExecutive SummaryAssumptionsFindings –Aluminum 2024Component AnalysisVehicle Segment AnalysisMass Reduction Scenarios After 2024 7% Mass Reduction Scenario 4.5% Mass Reduction Scenario Final CommentsINTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
Ducker & Aluminum Association Project ?TheAluminumAssociationAuto&LightTruckGroup(ATG)commissionedDuckerinOctober2016todeterminethelatestaluminumcontentintermsofnetpoundspervehiclebyvehicleandinaggregateforlightvehiclesproducedinNorthAmericainCY2016throughCY2024After2024,DuckeragreedtoprovidearangeoffuturealuminumsceanariosbasedonTARData and Information Sources ?DuckerdeterminedthatinadditiontoourmethodologyofgatheringthelatestinformationandopinionsonthefuturefromourextensiveinternaldatabaseandnetworkofOEMsandtheirsuppliers,wewoulduseallthelatestdataavailablefromNHTSA,EPAandothersourcessuchastheCenterforAutomotiveResearch(CAR)toestablishanindependentviewofwhatthetechnologypathsinTARimplyaboutweightsavingsbyOEM,vehicletypeandevenspecificvehiclesbeyond2024ThetheoreticalortopdownanalysisreliesprimarilyonreportsanddatabasesprovidedbytheEPA,NHTSAandCARwithinsightsandinputfromindustryrespondentsthroughoutthesupplychain?Process, Goals, and Objectives ?Thegoalofthetopdownanalysiswastodeterminetheweightsavings*andmaterialmixsolutionsimpliedbythelatestgovernmentreportsandtheirsupportingdocumentsanddatabases.Thetopdownanalysisexaminedtheeffectoffuelprices,vehiclemix,secondaryweightsavings,electrification,vehicledesignandvehiclelaunchcadenceontheamountofweightthatisexpectedtobeshedbyvehicletypetoreducetheMY2015averagevehicleweightby7%byMY2025ThetopdownanalysisisnotanattempttopredictwhateachOEMwilldotomeettheregulations.ItprovidesaframeworkofwhattheregulatorsbelievetheOEMscoulddotomeettheregulationsinthesafestandmostcosteffectivemannerinthetimeperiod2024–2025.Averageweightsavingsandmaterialforecastsareonlyvaluabletocreateaframework.Vehiclesegmentanalysisandwherepossible,specificvehicleweightsavingsarethekeytothesuccessforboththetopdownandbottomupanalyses.NHTSAandtheEPAhaveestablishedslightlydifferentweightreductiongoalsfor2025andbeyond.Theaverageofthetargetsamountstoareductionof270netpoundspervehicleor7%comparedtotheaveragevehicleweightofMY2015.TheNHTSAtechnologypathtoachieve7%ishighlyvehiclespecific,andwascriticaltotheDuckeranalysisofmaterialsubstitutionoptionsafter2024TheregulationdrivenweightreductiongoalsvarybytypeofvehicleandbyOEM.Lessthan25%ofthevehicleshavetocontribute50%ofthetotalsavings.Pickuptrucks,largecarsandSUVs,minivansandelectricvehicleswillbearmostoftheburden.Nearly20%ofthevehiclesarelikelytoreducemassby20%whileanequalnumberofvehiclesarelikelytoreducemassbylessthan7.5?cordingtoNHTSATechnologyPathinChapter13oftheTechnicalAssessmentReport(TAR)??*All weight savings references in the report are the direct savings from material substitution. Under the assumption that weight creep increases and secondary weight savings and engine resize weight decreases offset each other, the material sum after substitution is the equivalent of curb weight3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 2024 HIGHLIGHTS
Thisstudyisorganizedintwosegments,2015to2024andScenariosbeyond2024?
MassreductioninitiativesareinfluencedbyCAFEregulations,consumerpreferences,fuelprices,andOEMobjectives.TheCAFEregulationthrough2024isfirmandtheotherinfluencingfactorsarerecognizedbyOEMandinnear-termreflectedvehicleprograms.Mostvehicleprogramsthrough2024havebeenfinalized,orarenearingfinalproductioncommitments.The2015to2024sectionistheresultofadetailed“Bottomup”modelandcomponentanalysisofproductionvehiclematerialscontent
CAFEregulationshaveamajorimpactonmassreductioninitiatives.Regulationsafter2024arecurrentlythesubjectofthe“Mid-TermReview”processandwillhaveadraftregulationexpectedinApril2024.ContentandtimingofdifferentFuelEconomy,CO2levelsandtimingoffuturelevelsarebeingconsideredbyOEMSandRegulators.Toaddressthatuncertainty,Duckerevaluatedpotentialautomotivematerialsutilizationunderthreedifferentmassreductionandtimingassumptions:
Current Proposed RegulationMost Likely OEM Compromise
Market Driven Solution (no CAFE regulation)
7% *Mass Reduction by 20257% *Mass Reduction by 2028
4.5% *Mass Reduction by 2028
*-based on 2015 average curb mass of 3834 Lbs.
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?DuckerbelievesthatfutureCAFEregulationswillbewithintherangedefinedbythesebounds
MajorFindings–2024?
Aluminumcontentforecastfor2015to2024:
2015% Share of Curb Mass per VehicleAverage Curb Mass Pounds per Vehicle108352024Average Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle39746613735??
Fiftypercentoftotalaluminumcontentgrowthoverthenextfiveyearswillbedrivenbyaluminumforclosures,crashmanagement,steeringknucklesandstructuralvacuumdiecastparts
Aluminumcontentbyvehiclesegmentin2024willrangefrom262poundspervehicleintheA/Bsegmentpassengercarstoover550poundspervehiclefortheaveragepickuptruck.Theaveragepassengercarwillcontain362poundsofaluminumandtheaveragelighttruckwillcontain523poundsofaluminumby2024
TheaveragealuminumcontentforfiveOEMsin2024willbeover600poundspervehicle
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北美轻型车辆2016年至2028年铝含量研究报告
