Hydrological Responscs to Climatc Changc in the Watcr Rccciving Arca of thc Middle Route P

Hydrological Responscs to Climatc Changc in the Watcr Rccciving Arca of thc Middle Route Project

for South-to-North Watcr Transfer

XIA Jun;ZENG Sidong;ZHANG Liping;DU Hong

【期刊名称】《中国科学院院刊（英文版）》 【年(卷),期】2012(026)001

【摘要】Climate change will lead to a significant alteration in the temporal and spatial pattern variation in the regional hydrological cycle, and the subsequent lack of water, environmental deterioration, floods and droughts etc. And it is especially remarkable in semi-humid and semi-arid region. In this paper, the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle were analyzed for the Hai River Basin, a semi-humid and semi-arid basin and also the water receiving area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion project. Meanwhile it is the most vulnerable to climate change. Firstly, the linear regression and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test methods were used to analyze the change characteristics of the hydrological and meteorological elements for the period from 1960 to 2009. The results show a significant increase in temperature, while precipitation decreases slightly, and runoff decreases drastically over the past 50 years. Secondly, the applicability of SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool） model based on the DEM （Digital Elevation Model）, land use and soil type was verified in the